Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. Stocks are trying to recover from Wednesdays volatility. Will anything change in tariffs in 90 days? Crude is lower and near $59. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. Copper is higher on talk of a China stimulus. Trump may recognize sovereignty on Panama over Canal.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.28 on a pause on US tariffs except China. Dalian soybean. palmoil and soyoil were higher. Soymeal was lower. Argentina workers called for 2 day strike. Argentina Rosario Exchange lowered soybean crop est 1 mmt to 45.4 due to lower acres. US Midwest is dry. It appears US soybean export demand looks lower long-term but higher shortterm. USDA announced 196 mt US soybeans to unknown. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 379 mil bu vs 380 previous. Trump could soften policy on fees on China ships coming into US ports.
CORN
CN is near 4.82. Solid exports and lack of new selling rallied CN-CZ spread to +30. Weekly US ethanol production was lower than last week and last year. Stocks were higher than last week and last year. USDA announced Spain 240 mt sale of US corn may have been a mistake and should have been Taiwan. EU will impose a 25 pct tariff on US corn next week. Some feel CN resistance is near 5.00 until more is known about final Brazil supply and US summer weather. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,510 mil bu vs 1,540 previous. IMF approved a $20 billion aid package to Argentina. Argentina Rosario Exchange increased corn crop est 4 mmt to 48.5 due to higher acres.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.57. KWN is near 5.86. MWN is near 6.24. WN resistance is near 5.60 then 5.73. MWN-WN is now near +67. US south plains remains dry with temps warming. Managed funds short est 40 mmt US and EU wheat futures and making money rolling carries. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 825 mil bu vs 819 previous. USDA could lower their est of Russia wheat exports. CBOT declared force majeure on OH river wheat shipping stations due to flooding.
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