Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Some feel funds are covering shorts before USDA report and US election. Trade will watch for US weekly corn and soybean crop ratings for more decline. China lowered lending rate 10 basis points and there is talk of even more stimulus to help their economy. Gold is unch near record high prices. Crude is also unch near $71. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher.
US DEBT AND SHUTDOWN
US Debt is now near 35.5 trillion. Interest on debt is 1 trillion. US adds 1 trillion to debt every 100 days. Congress passed stopgap spending to avoid government shutdown.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.21. Some still feel SX could be in a choppy 9.55-10.31 range. US domestic soybean basis is lower ahead of harvest. Forecast of Midwest rains could slow harvest. Key to soybean futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil. Some fear normal Brazil weather could drop SX below 9.00 early in 2025. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 585 mil bu.
CORN
CZ is near 4.05. Some feel CZ could be in a choppy 3.85-4.20 range. Corn could be forming a long-term bottom. World corn stocks are tightening. Ukraine crop could drop 8.5 mmt vs ly. Bears need Brazil rains to push corn lower. Some could see CZ test 4.40 and CH test 4.65-4.80 post-harvest. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 2,167 mil bu.
WHEAT
Wheat prices supported by geopolitical concerns vs lower Russia export prices Russia and Ukraine exchanged missile attacks. Russia is attacking Ukraine Odessa port and vessels. Ukraine is attacking Russia refineries and trying to get approval of long range missiles. Israel and Hezbollah are trading intense fire. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 822 mil bu.
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