Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $69.70. Gold is higher and record high. China announced drop in lending rates to stimulate their economy. Leak of Israel plans to attack Iran adds to geopolitical risk. 15 days until US election. US election also adds to uncertainty. Brazil is getting rain. Argentina is getting rain. France is drier. Central Midwest weather is favorable for harvest. US farmers are near complete for soybean harvest and will now shift to corn.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 9.76. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Palmoil and soyoil was lower. Since Jan, Chiba has bought 62 mmt of Brazil soybean or up 13 pct vs ly. China has bought 14 mmt US or down 15 pct vs ly. China has bought 45 Feb-May Brazil soybean cargoes and are est to be covered from US through Dec. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. Some feel lower China soybean import demand and talk of record high Brazil 2025 crop could drop US export 150 mil bu. US soya products could find resistance with 4 new soybean crush plants opening.
CORN
CZ held 4.06. Dalian corn futures were lower. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. Cash is firming and CZ-CH spread is -14. Open harvest weather could have harvest near 63 pct by Sunday. US corn exports prices are competitive to buyers for now. Investment funds are selling grains before US election. Corn could find support early 2025 on increase export demand before SA harvest.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.74. US consumer added coverage near key support. Most quote Russia near $235-240. Ukraine is $230. This is still lowest export price. There is talk BRICS could open their own grain and currency exchange. There is also talk that Russia could sell wheat directly to 13 countries leaving US out of future sales. Parts of US plains missed forecasted rains.
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