Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 2 cents and near 12.7. SMH is near 368.4. BOH is near 48.36. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.55. WH is up 3 cents and near 5.99.KWH is up 5 cents and near 6.20. MWH is up 4 cents and near 7.07. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. Nat Gas higher on colder north Hemisphere temps. Rumor PBOC could cut ratio reserve requirements. One US Fed Governor may be reversing her feeling about no rates cuts.
CH is near 4.55. USDA week. Some look for USDA to increase US 2023 corn crop and 2023/24 carryout. Average trade est for Brazil corn is 126 mmt vs USDA 129, Argentina 54.8 vs USDA 55. Corn futures are oversold with Managed funds short 209,000 contracts. Dalian corn prices were lower. Weekly US corn exports were 34 mil bu. Season to date exports up 28 pct vs ly and USDA up 26. Argentina and Ukraine corn export prices are below US. US domestic ethanol margins remain lower.
SH is near 12.47. SMH is down below 370 support. BOH back above 48. USDA week. Some look for USDA to increase US 2023 soybean crop and 2023/24 carryout. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 156.7 mmt vs USDA 161, Argentina 48.7 vs USDA 48. Weekly US export inspections were 34 mil bu. Season to date exports are down 21 pct vs ly. USDA est exports down 12 pct. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. SN-SX spread down to +60 vs +100 ly.
WH is near 5.99. KWH is near 6.20. MWH is near 7.07. Russia is still cheapest origin. There is talk China may have switched US wheat to cheaper France. US, EU and Black Sea temps turn colder. Few concerned about winterkill. Weekly US export inspections were 18 mil bu. Season to date exports are down 16 pct vs ly. USDA est exports down 4 pct.
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