Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Stock are marginally lower. There is an 85 pct chance US Fed lower rates in Sep vs 75 pct before CPI, US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch near $79. US retail sales were weaker than expected.
SN is near 12.28. Resistance is near 12.32. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Soymeal was lower. SMN finding support near 365. Heavy rains continue in S Brazil. Brazil soybean premiums are higher on increase China buying. China bought 23 Brazil soybean cargoes this week. Argentina harvest is 64 pct. Crop is est at 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53. Weekly US soybean export commit is down 16 pct vs ly and USDA down 14.7 pct. China has still not bought US new crop soybeans. Soyoil is higher on new talk US could still install tariffs on imported used cooking oil.
CN is near 4.59. 4.56 is key support. Dalian corn futures were lower but still higher for the week. Weekly US corn export commit is up 27 pct from ly and USDA 29 pct increase. Mexico is beginning to slow buying US in front of Brazil Aug-Sep availability. Brazil corn export premiums are lower on lack of new China buying. Argentina harvest is near 25 pct with crop rated 14 pct G/E vs 17 last week, Crop est near 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53.0.
WN is near 6.73. WN finding support near 6.56. Resistance is 6.81. Wheat futures are trying to decide if WN needs to trade over 7.00 on Russia and EU winter wheat crop worries or if demand is soft enough to pull futures lower. It continues to rain in EU. Annual KS Wheat tour est KS yields at 46.5 and highest since 2021. Crop is est at 290 mil bu vs 268 ly. US wheat export commit is near 695 mil bu vs USDA export est of 720.
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