Written Commentary
Morning Grain Outlook
Grains are higher. SX is up 8 cents and near 9.07. CU is up 3 cents and near 3.27. WZ is up 4 cents and near 5.14. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 4.40. US stocks are moderately higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed to lower. Gold is higher. This week is the Democratic National Convention.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 6 cents; HRW up 8; HRS up 2; Corn was up 18 cents; Soybeans up 31; Soymeal up $12.00, and; Soyoil up 35 points. Crushing margins were down 2 at $0.99 cents; Oil share unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 12 yuan in soybeans, up 23 in Corn, unchanged in Soymeal, up 56 in Soyoil, and up 50 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 31 ringgit at 2,678 (basis November) tracking rival vegoils.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has the models mixed with light rains for the northern and eastern sections of the region from the European model. The GFS has light to moderate rains east of the Mississippi River and lighter amounts to the west. Temps will warm to average as we work through the week and into the first half of next week. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has less than average rainfall and below average temps.
Dry US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is helping grain futures overnight. US August rainfall is estimated to be below normal. Talk of lower US corn and soybean 2020 crop due to recent record winds also is offering support. China buying US soybean is helping. Talk of China may buy US corn could also help corn and offset drop in ethanol demand. Higher China demand for French wheat could offer support to wheat.A storm packing hurricane-force winds on Monday impacted 37.7 million acres of farmland across the Midwest, including 14 million in Iowa. The toll from the derecho storm has worsened as farmers and grain handlers have spent the week assessing flattened corn fields and crumpled steel storage bins; the USDA said the storm affected 8.18 million acres of corn and 5.64 million acres of soybeans in Iowa. The state agriculture department on Tuesday estimated a total of 10 million acres may have been impacted. The storm affected 58,000 holders of crop-insurance policies with a liability of around $6 billion in Iowa, including $1.86 billion for soybeans.
China is expected to have a food supply gap of about 130 million tons by the end of 2025, as its urban population continues to grow and its rural workforce ages, state media said on Monday, citing a report by a government think tank.
Pro Farmer will have their annual crop tour this week. Their estimate is normally +/- USDA Sep corn yield by 2 bpa, soybean +/- 1 bpa. Their estimate is normal +/- USDA final corn yield by 4 bpa, soybean +/- 2 bpa. First states they will survey today is OH and SD. Tuesday is IN and NE. Wednesday is W IA and IL. Thursday completes the tour and they will survey MN and IL.
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