Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Happy New Year ! No overnight trade as we celebrate the beginning of 2026. Trading across the Ag space will resume at 8:30 AM CST. Holiday trading mode will likely continue across the Ag space today. The lower trade largely driven by higher production prospects in Brazil as weather remains largely favorable. Dryness continues for southern Argentina however better prospects for rain in week 2 of the outlook. On Wed. the USDA released details of their $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. One time payments are expected by the end of Feb-26. Export sales thru Dec. 25th out at 7:30 AM CST.
The US $$$ is slightly higher. Energy prices are slightly lower. US stock indices look to start 2026 on a firm note led by Nasdaq futures currently up 1%. CFTC data showed MM’s and index funds both healthy sellers across the soybean complex for the week ended Dec. 23rd.
SOYBEANS
Mch-26 futures fell to a 2 ½ month low on Wed. with next support at the October low of $10.28 ½. Deliveries against Jan-26 soybean slipped to 913 contracts while oil rose to 48. No deliveries against Jan-26 meal. Reported sales to China are just over 6 mmt, while actual sales are likely over 8 mmt. Look for sales to come to a screeching halt if/when they reach 12 mmt as purchases shift to cheaper SA supplies. Census crush from Nov-25 after today’s close is expected to fall to 225 mil. bu., down from all-time high of 237 mil. in October. Bean oil usage for the production of biofuels in Oct-25 slipped to only 1.006 bil. lbs. down 18% YOY and the lowest for the month in 3 years. The USDA forecast for the 25/26 MY at 15.5 bil. lbs. likely to be cut significantly in Jan. 12th WASDE.
CORN
Mch-26 futures will look to hold support at its 100 day MA at $4.38 ¾. Prices have essentially held in a $4.35-$4.55 range for the past 2 ½ months. MM’s were net buyers of just over 55k contracts the week ended Dec. 23rd, flipping their position back to net long 3k. Exports remain strong, up 31% YTD thru Dec. 18th vs. USDA forecast of up 12%.
WHEAT
Mch-26 CGO will try to hold its contract low at $5.04. Mch-26 KC has held up a bit better. Its contract low rests at $4.98 ¾. Dry across the US plains for the first full week of 2026. Better prospects for precipitation in week 2 of the outlook. US winter wheat acres in drought rose 2% to 40%, vs. the 52 week high of 45%. Still no peace in Ukraine. SovEcon raised their Russian export forecast .4 mmt to 44.6 mmt. US export sales are up 19% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%.
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