Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher and near contract highs on talk of US rate cuts and concern over Fed independence. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry but cool. Rain today in SE. Federal appeals court ruled most of Trump tariffs are illegal Next could be Supreme Court ruling. Ukraine war continues. Xi, Putin and Modi met to discuss a new alliance.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.46. Some est US 24/25 soybean end stocks at 367 mil bu vs USDA 330. Increase due to lower residual. Same group est US 25/26 soybean end stocks at 398 mil bu vs USDA 290. Increase due to lower exports. Oil World est 25/26 soybean production at 425.0 mmt vs 422.6 in 24/25. Brazil 176.0 vs 170.8, US 116.8 vs 118.8. Brazil is dry before plantings. They est China 24/25 soybean crush at 104.4 mmt and US 66.8. They est Brazil 24/25 soybean exports at 102.7 mmt, US 49.9. They est China 24/25 soybean imports at 108.7. There is talk that China will not buy US soybean for rest of 2025.
CORN
CZ is near 4.19. Some est US 24/25 corn end stocks at 1,420 mil bu vs USDA 1,305. Increase due to lower ethanol use vs USDA. Same group est US 25/26 end stocks at 2.487 mil bu vs USDA 2,117. Increase due to lower feed and residual and exports. Last week, Corn rallied on talk that a private group had a crop tour in which they found lower corn yields than expected and rumors of China buying US corn. Record US corn and soybean crops could pressure US storage capacity.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.27. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.13. MWZ is near 5.72 and new lows. HRS futures dropped on increase harvest pressure and combined Australia and Argentina 2026 crop could be record 65 mmt. Matif wheat futures are lower. Russia Sep exports are est at 4 mmt vs 5 mmt ly. Ukraine exports out of Chornonorsk hampered by power outage after Russia attacks to power grid.
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