Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
April Crude Oil was slightly lower early Thursday. The market continues to draw support from the tensions between the US and Iran, but it may be undermined a by lower demand projections from the International Energy Agency. President Trump said nothing definitive was decided during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday but that negotiations with Iran toward a deal would continue. The IEA projected global oil supply would exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day in 2026, similar to last month’s forecast. A surplus of that size would be about 4% of world demand and is larger than other predictions.
PRODUCTS
April RBOB was lower early Thursday after reaching its highest level since October 2024 on Wednesday. The EIA report on Wednesday showed US gasoline stocks were +1.2 million barrels last week versus -400,000 expected, and US supply remains at its highest level in at least five years. April ULSD traded up into the gap from the open on February 2 on Wednesday for the second time and failed to close it for the second time as well.
NATURAL GAS
April Natural Gas was higher early Thursday as the market attempted to close the gap from Monday’s open. The switch to above normal temperatures over most of the US is being absorbed by the market, which has already seen more than a 0.618 correction of the rally from the January 9 low to the January 30 high. The 6-10 and 8-14-day forecasts show above normal temperatures from the Rockies to the East Coast, which will limit heating demand over the next couple of weeks. West of there, temperatures are expected to be mostly below normal. That trend moves into the far northern reaches of the Great Plains and Midwest in the 8-14-day.
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