Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
The April Empire State manufacturing index was -8.1 when -10.0 was expected.
Import prices in March declined 0.1% when unchanged was anticipated, and export prices in March were unchanged when a 0.1% increase was estimated.
Stock index futures are lower this morning but are likely to recover and trade higher on the day.
An accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy remains an underlying long term supportive influence.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The March U.S. dollar index is a little higher but continues to hover near the lowest level in three years as concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and policy direction continued to weigh on sentiment.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany fell to -14 in April 2025, which is the lowest level since July 2023, and is much worse than forecasts of 9.5.
Euro zone industrial production increased 1.1% month-over-month in February 2025, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.6% advance in January and easily surpassing market expectations of a 0.3% gain.
U.K. wage growth held steady at 5.6%, which reinforces concerns that wage inflation could delay any near-term interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are mostly lower.
Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic suggested the central bank should stay on hold until there is more clarity, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that interest rates may need to be cut soon.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Thomas Barkin at 10:35 central time and Lisa Cook at 6:10 PM.
The Federal Open Market Committee is predicted to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points three times in 2025 with the first reduction likely at the June meeting.
The interest rate market futures have recently underperformed the news.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
