Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 12 cents and near 14.41. SX is near 13.11. SMN is near 398.7. BON is near 59.14. CN is up 6 cents and near 6.29. CU is near 5.78. CZ is near 5.82. WN is up 5 cents and near 6.67. KWN is up 2 cents and near 8.15. MWN is up 4 cents and near 8.37. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower and near $70. Gold is higher. Stocks up on US Fed pause and higher AI stocks.
SN is higher. Traders are adding to soybean longs and are now long soyoil. Weekly US soybean sales were higher than expected especially to EU. US NOPA crush was higher than expected and new record for May. Dry US Midwest forecast is also supportive. One weather watcher could see dryness extended into July. 51 pct of US soybean area is in moderate drought. SN is back testing May high. Brazil soybean basis continues to slide lower. Brazil is trying to sell and export as many soybean possible before starting to ship record corn crop.
CN is higher. Traders are reducing net futures short. Weekly US corn export sales and ethanol production were lower than expected. Some could see US 2022/23 corn demand down 200-300 mil bu but dry US Midwest forecast is supportive. One weather watcher could see dryness extended into July. 57 pct of US soybean area is in moderate drought. CN highest level since April. CN-CU spread down to +52. US farmer selling did increase on Thursday futures rally. China is an active buyer of Brazil corn. Matif corn futures tried to follow CBOT gains but favorable crop conditions limits gains.
Wheat futures are higher. Wheat futures may be follow higher corn prices. US wheat farmer may have increased cash sales on this rally. US wheat export to date are down 17 pct vs last year vs USDA estimate of down 6 pct. Matif wheat futures did not follow US due to high stocks and better forecast. Russia wheat export prices are 25-30 cents below French, 35-40 below Germany and 105 cents below US HRW. USDA World wheat exports near record 212 mmt. Russia 46.5 up 2 vs ly, EU 38.5 up 4 mmt vs last year and Argentina up 8 mmt weather permitting. US share only 9 pct.
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