Written Commentary
GOLD / SILVER
While a significant inflow of ETF investment from small traders can signal the tail end of an investment wave, we think the inflows have only just begun off the inflation story. Obviously, the flight to quality angle has been a force longer than the inflation and investment force in gold and silver and given frequent confirmation of surging inflation and daily fresh reports of Russian attacks focused on civilians, the gold and silver trade look to have many bullish forces working in their favor into the last trading session of the week.
PALLADIUM / PLATINUM
Even though the primary focus of the palladium market is the threat of locked-in Russian supply, the trade should begin to draft support from news that South African PGM output in January declined by 2.9% versus year ago levels and the market should draft support from ongoing confirmation that global inflation continues to rise. While the downside breakout yesterday and again this morning shifts the short-term technical condition in favor of the bear camp, the platinum market did respect long-term uptrend channel support overnight of $1065.70.
COPPER
While the copper market this morning has forged a higher high and has regained half of the prior two sessions steep washout, an increase in Chinese February copper output, a pause in nickel strength and a rise in LME copper stocks of 2,300 tons provides a measure of resistance to prices. On the other hand, Shanghai copper warehouse stocks declined by 6,283 tons thereby countering the rise in LME copper stocks.
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