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Interest Rate Futures Holding Up Well


Futures are holding up very well today despite mostly bearish news, which is a sign of strength.

Financial futures markets are now suggesting the Federal Open Market Committee will hike its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its policy meeting on March 22, and there is a smaller chance the central bank may make no change in interest rates.

Currently there is a 72% probability the FOMC will hike by 25 basis points and a 28% probability of no change in the fed funds rate.


Stock index futures are lower.

February housing starts were 1.450 million when 1.315 million were expected and building permits were 1.524 million when 1.340 million were anticipated.

Jobless claims in the week ended March 11 were 192,000 when 205,000 were predicted.

The March Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index was negative 23.2, which compares to the estimated negative 15.8. The prices paid index was 23.5 when 27.0  was expected.

Import prices in February  were down 0.1% when a decline of 0.2% was anticipated and export prices were down 1.1% when an increase of 0.2% was estimated.


The European Central Bank at its policy meeting today increased its deposit rate by 50 basis points to 3.0% from 2.5%. Most analysts were predicting a 50 basis point hike with a minority  expecting only a 25 basis point increase.

The Bank of England is seen hiking interest rates by 25 basis points on March 23. Some analysts believe this could be the last increase in this current policy tightening cycle.

Japan’s core machinery orders increased  9.5% on the month in January when a gain of 1.8% was expected.

The Australian dollar advanced on news that Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in February 2023 from January’s eight-month high of 3.7% and below market estimates of 3.6%. The number of unemployed decreased by 16,500 to 507,500.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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