Ivory Coast Arrivals Increase

COCOA

March Cocoa was slightly lower early Tuesday but was respecting Monday’s low. Ivory Coast port arrivals data were released during Monday’s session, and they showed arrivals totaling 54,000 metric tons for the week ending January 11, up from 43,000 the previous week and 48,000 for the same week a year ago. This was the first time arrivals were above the previous week and above year-ago levels since December 14. Cumulative arrivals have reached 1.125 million tons, down from 1.157 million at this point last year and below the five-year average of 1.188 million. Ivory Coast farmers told Reuters that above-average rains last week bode well for the upcoming mid-crop, which runs from April through September. Traders are looking ahead to the fourth quarter 2025 grind data from Europe, Asia, and North America, scheduled to be released on January 15. Europe’s third-quarter grind was 4.8% below a year ago, Asia’s was down 17%, and North America’s was up 3.2%. ICE cocoa stocks increased by 15,393 bags on Monday to 1.76 million, their highest since December 8. The recent emergence of a seasonal dry pattern in West Africa may spark some talk of the Harmattan wind, which can dry soils and lower production prospects.

COFFEE

March Coffee was moderately higher early Tuesday but it only managed to recover a portion of Friday’s steep selloff. The International Coffee Organization reported significant increases in green coffee exports by coffee producers in November, but that was due to a sharp increase in robusta sales. Exports totaled 8.95 million bags, up 4.8% from the same period last year. Robusta exports totaled 3.24 million bags, up 28%. Vietnam’s exports were up 93% increase to 1.47 million, and Uganda and Indonesia showed increases as well. Arabica exports were lower, with sales of Colombian Milds falling 0.9% to 1.24 million bags and Brazilian Naturals falling 14.7% to 3.25 million. The ICO said the decrease in Brazilian sales was caused by smaller supplies and the impact of the US tariffs. Uganda’s agricultural ministry reported that the nation exported 640,328 bags of coffee in November, up 60.3% from 399,381 in November 2024. News last week that President Trump will meet with Colombian president Petro at the White House early next month. The market reached a six-week high last week after bellicose comments between the two leaders in the wake of the Maduro capture sparked concerns over Colombian supply, and the market sold after the two talked on the phone. Rains are expected to slowly increase in Brazilian coffee growing areas this week.

SUGAR

March Sugar was near unchanged early Tuesday, inside Monday’s range and inside the range of the past two months. The large global supply this year is limiting upside potential despite the market’s attempt to put in a low. Sugar consultancy Covrig Analytics on Monday raised its global sugar surplus forecast the 2025/26 (October-September) to 4.7 million metric tons, up 600,000 tons from their previous forecast. They cited stronger output in Pakistan and China, Europe, Russia, parts of Africa and Indonesia that outweighed reductions in Brazil, Mexico and Thailand. The group looks for the surplus to shrink in to 1.4 million tons in 2026/27, as current prices are below production costs in several producing areas. They mentioned the possibility that Brazilian cane processors would more cane to make ethanol instead of sugar.

COTTON

March Cotton was holding firm early Tuesday but did not take out Monday’s high. The dollar recovered slightly following Monday’s decline, which takes away some of the currency support. Monday’s USDA supply/demand (WASDE) report came in at the bullish end of expectations for US production and ending stocks and bullish for world usage and ending stocks. US 2025/26 production came in at 13.92 million bales versus an average trade expectation from a Bloomberg survey of 14.20 million (range 13.77-14.55 million) and down 350,000 from 14.27 million in the December update. Average yield was lowered to 856 pounds per acre versus 929 in December due to lower yields in the Delta and from an expansion of harvested area in the Southwest. Exports were left unchanged at 12.20 million bales versus 12.04 million expected (range 11.80-12.20 million), despite the slow pace of US export sales. As a result, ending stocks fell to 4.20 million bales, lower than the 4.56 million expected (range 4.20-4.80 million) and down from 4.50 million in December. This pulled the stocks/use ratio down to 30.4% from 30.9% in December, which is still above the five-year average at 26.4% and the highest since 2022/23 and the second-highest since 2019/20.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.