Written Commentary
WASDE SUPPLY/DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
Sharp rallies in corn and beans fueled by bullish USDA data. Neutral to bearish data for wheat however trading higher in sympathy with higher corn and soybeans.
Corn:
- US 2024 production slashed 276 mil. bu. to 14.867 bil. 140 mil. below expectations
- Ave. yield down nearly 4 bpa to 179.3 bpa. Harvested acres up 186k
- Dec 1st stocks at 12.074 bil. down 75 mil. from expectations
- US 2024/25 ending stocks down to 1.540 bil. 135 mil. below expectations despite lower usage
- No changes to SA Production
Beans
- US 2024 production down another 95 mil. bu. to 4.366 bil. 85 mil. below expectations
- Ave. yield cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. Harvested acres down 221k
- Dec 1st stocks at 3.10 bil. bu. up 100 mil. from YA, down 130 from expectations
- US 2024/25 ending stocks down to 380 mil. roughly 80 below expectations
- Bean oil exports up another 500 mil. lbs. to 1.6 bil. Usage for biofuels down 400 mil.
Wheat
- US ending stocks little changed at 798 mil. bu. in line with expectations
- Dec 1st stocks at 1.570 bil. up 150 from YA however in line with expectations
- Winter wheat acres at 34.1 mil. were up 725 mil. from YA vs. expectations of unchanged
- HRW acres up 200k to 34.1 mil., SRW up 340k to 6.44 mil. white up 140k to 3.64 mil.
- Russian exports cut 1 mmt to 46 mmt, Ukraine exports down .50 mmt to 16 mmt.
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