January Colombia Coffee at 3-Year Low

COFFEE

March Coffee extended its selloff early Monday. The market has moved back into its trading range from July bound by 295.00-266.80. Several analysts have projected a strong Brazilian crop for 2026. Last week, Conab put the nation’s total coffee output at 66.2 million bags, +17.1% from the previous year, with arabica production at 44.1 million, up more than 20% from 2025, citing the “on-year” the biennial cycle. The Brazilian brokerage firm EISA put the crop at a record 75.8 million bags, which is near the top of recent estimates, with arabica output at 48 million. Brazilian brokers did comment on Friday that said the sharp decline in prices is driving some farmers to stop sales.

One supportive factor could be the decline in Colombian output. Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers said on Friday that the nation’s production fell to 893,000 bags in January, down from the 1.35 million in January 2025 and the lowest for any January since 2023. Production fell 8% in the 12 months through January to 13.2 million bags versus 14.4 million in the prior-year period. This was also the lowest 12-month total since October 2024. January exports fell to 909,000 bags from 1.2 million in January 2025. Exports for the 12-month period was 12.9 million bags compared with 12.5 million in the previous year. The group said rainfall in the closing months of 2025 hampered output.

SUGAR

March Sugar was higher early Monday after falling to its lowest level since November on Friday. So far the market has managed to hold support at the November 6 low of 14.04, but just barely. Speakers at the Dubai Sugar Conference last week forecasted another global sugar surplus for 2026/27 but not as big as the one in 2025/26. One caveat is the possibility that the arrival of El Nino this spring or summer could lower monsoon rainfall amounts in Southeast Asia and in India and lower expectations for the cane crops there. Tereos forecasted EU sugar beet planting area to decline 6-7% from last year to its lowest level in about a decade. Czarnikow said it expects EU plantings to decline 5% and for sugar production to fall to 15.5 million metric tons from 17.1 million tons in 2025/26. Brazilian sugar companies have hedged around 38% of their expected exports for the 2026/27 season versus 72% at this time last year, risk advisory Archer Consulting said on Thursday. The UNICA report on Friday showed Brazilian Center-South sugar production for the first half of January 2 was 7,000 metric tons versus 11,000 a year ago and 56,000 for the second half of December. Production continues to drop off as the season winds down, and this bi-weekly reports become less consequential as a result. Production tends to bottom out for the season in February. Brazil’s new season starts in April.

COCOA

More talk of high farmgate prices emerged on Friday this  time from Ghana, the world’s second-largest producer. The country’s cocoa market regulator, Cocobod said Ghana has about 50,000 metric tons of unsold cocoa sitting at its ports. The CEO of the group said the so far this season just under 585,000 tons have been harvested and 530,000 tons have been sold. The total crop is still expected to be around 650,000 tons. Ghana’s Licensed Buying Companies separately urged Cocobod on Thursday to urgently secure government funds to pay for approximately 300,000 tons of cocoa in order to “avert a deeper collapse of the country’s cocoa industry.” The farmgate price in Ghana, set annually by Cocobod, is around $5,300 per ton. Purchases have dried up as a result, and farmers have been left unpaid. Ivory Coast’s regulator, the CCC, has is in a similar situation, and news of that contributed to the selloff in cocoa in January. The unsold cocoa can deteriorate rapidly in the heat. West African weather continues to contribute to a positive outlook for the region’s crops. World Weather Inc. says the area will see a more normal weather pattern for this time of year over the next two weeks, which would include only a few infrequent coastal showers and warm temperatures until mid- to late-February when seasonal rains start to increase in the south. The Harmattan wind will continue to be light Africa and temperatures will be warm, but not excessively hot over the next week.

COTTON

March Cotton was moderately higher early Monday after falling to a new contract low on Friday. The bulls have little to bank on, but the bears may be reluctant to push lower ahead of the monthly USDA supply/demand report on Tuesday. Not that the trade is looking for a big change in the outlook. A Bloomberg poll has an average trade expectation for US 2025/26 cotton production at 13.90 million bales (range 13.80-14.00), which would be slightly lower than the 13.92 million in the January update. Exports are expected at around 12.17 million bales, down from 12.20 million in January, and ending stocks are expected at 4.21 million bales, up from 4.20 million. World production is expected around 119.52 million bales versus 119.43 million in the January report, and world ending stocks are expected at 74.56 million versus 74.48 million in January. World Weather Inc. says west Texas may get some precipitation briefly during mid-week this week, but it is not likely to be very great. A better chance could develop late this week. South Texas will continue to be dry for much of the next ten days. That area needs rain to support planting in early March. Showers may fall erratically in eastern Australia during the next ten days offering local areas of improved crop condition, but a general soaking is needed

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