Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Jump in Dollar Hurts Cotton Demand


Cocoa prices have had a positive longer-term demand outlook since COVID vaccines were developed and approved for wider use, and that has helped to keep the market well supported when retesting their 2021 lows. Near-term demand concerns were given additional fuel following Wednesday’s close, however, and that could weigh on the cocoa market during today’s action.


Events after the close yesterday may put the market back on the defensive, but a bullish supply outlook should help coffee find underlying support. A new 1-year high in the Brazilian currency provided coffee with carryover support as that eases pressure on Brazil’s farmers to market their near-term coffee supply to foreign customers.


The dollar rallied sharply in the wake of the FOMC meeting (to its highest level since May 5) on what was viewed as a more hawkish turn for the Fed, with 7 of 18 members reportedly expecting a rate increase before the end of 2022 and 13 members expecting higher rates in 2023. This is negative for cotton, but the dollar rally happened after the cotton market closed, so this may be a bearish force for today.


With energy prices and the Brazilian currency under pressure, sugar is likely to drop down to a new monthly low during today’s action. The Brazilian currency reached a new 1-year high, and that currency’s recent strength has supported sugar prices as that has eased pressure on Brazil’s Central-South mills to produce sugar for the global export market.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started