June 1 Global Ag News Headlines
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 3 cent, HRW down 5; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans unchanged, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 5 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 11 cents; HRW up 24; HRS up 11; Corn was up 6 cents; Soybeans up 7 cents; Soymeal down $1.00, and; Soyoil up 70 points.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 4 cents; HRW down 17; HRS up 10; Corn was up 1 cent; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $6.00, and; Soyoil up 80 points;
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 25 yuan, down 51 yuan in Corn, up 5 in Soymeal, up 52 in Soyoil, and up 46 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 39 ringgit at 2,331 (basis August) at midsession on rising May exports.
U.S. Weather Forecast:
Very warm to hot temperatures will occur in the U.S. Great Plains early this week and the warmth will expand into the Midwest for a while during mid-week, but temperatures may not be quite as hot as far to the north as once expected
U.S. Midwest will experience better late season planting conditions over the next two weeks and warm weather will promote aggressive crop development.
U.S. Delta and southeastern states will see a favorable mix of rain and sunshine over the next couple of weeks
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000 Corn; net sold 5,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; were net even in Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 255,000 Corn; net short 1,000 Soybeans; net short 43,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 4,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5.200 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,900; Corn up 13,000; Soybeans up 1,600 contracts; Soymeal up 2,400 lots, and; Soyoil up 960.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 121; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT INSPEC—WEEKLY CROP PROGESS—MONTHLY OILSEED, GRAIN CRUSH
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he was directing his administration to begin the process of eliminating special treatment for Hong Kong in response to China plans to impose new security legislation in the territory; China had broken its word over Hong Kong’s autonomy; he said its move against Hong Kong was a tragedy for the people of Hong Kong, China and the world; Trump’s move comes after China moved forward with plans to impose new national security legislation and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the territory no longer warrants special treatment under U.S. law that has enabled it to remain a global financial center.
China may reduce its imports of agricultural products from the United States if Washington issues a severe response to Beijing’s push to impose national security laws on Hong Kong; China has pressed ahead with national security legislation for Hong Kong, raising fears over the future of the financial hub.
U.S. soybean crushings likely totaled 5.477 million short tons in April, or 182.5 million bushels ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report; estimates ranged from 182.0 million bushels to 184.1 million bushels.
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Monday.
If realized, it would be the largest April crush on record, eclipsing the previous record for the month of 171.6 million bushels set in April 2018; but it would be down from the prior month’s crush of 192.1 million bushels, which was an all-time record for any month.
U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of April were projected to jump to 2.532 billion lbs from 2.328 billion lbs at the end of March; if realized, it would be the largest end-of-month soyoil supply in two years; soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.350 billion to 2.750 billion lbs.
Speculators continued to sell Chicago-traded corn last week, establishing their most bearish end-of-May position on record with U.S. corn supplies set to soar to 33-year highs; in the week ended May 26, money managers increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 276,203 contracts from 245,386 in the prior week, according to data from the U.S.
Through May 26, money managers reduced their net long position in soybean futures and options to 5,813 contracts from 12,064 in the previous week.
Funds continued to build bullishness last week in the CBOT oilshare, which measures soyoil’s share of value in the soy products; they increased their net long in soybean oil futures and options to 3,984 contracts from 2,681 a week earlier, and they boosted bearish bets in soybean meal to 41,775 contracts from 29,404.
Money managers kept their bearish CBOT wheat views through May 26, trimming them to 12,204 futures and options contracts from 16,476 in the week before.
Money managers significantly expanded their net short position in Kansas City wheat futures and options to 25,743 contracts through May 26 from 15,038 a week prior.
Bearish Minneapolis wheat bets are still in control, though money managers trimmed 2,483 futures and options contracts off their record short through May 26 to 22,918 contracts.
For the week ended May 21st, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 4% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year
—By class, HRW wheat sales are up 7%, shipments 10% ahead with a USDA forecast of a 12% increase
—SRW sales 27% behind, shipments 28% behind with a 26% decline seen
—HRS sales 11% ahead, shipments up 4% with a 6% increase seen
For the week ended May 21st, U.S. Corn sales are running 17% behind a year ago, shipments 30% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.
For the week ended May 21st, U.S. Soybean sales are running 9% behind a year ago, shipments 3% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 4% decline on the year.
—Soymeal sales 8% behind on the year, shipments down 4% with a 1% decrease forecasted
–Soyoil sales 54% ahead of a year ago, shipments 42% ahead with a 31% increase forecasted
Russian grain exports in the final month of the agricultural year could be around 450,000 tonnes against 1.37 million tonnes in June last year, and exports in April-June could exceed the quota by 300,000 tonnes at 7.3 million tonnes, the JSC Rusagrotrans market analytics center reported.
—Specifically, wheat exports in June are projected at almost 350,000 tonnes against 922,000 tonnes in June 2019; barley at 50,000 tonnes versus 151,000 tonnes; and corn at 50,000 tonnes against 268,000 tonnes.
—Tecast for grain exports in May was reduced from 2.58 million tonnes to 2.41 million tonnes, against 1.37 million tonnes in May last year, owing to a drop in shipping rates in the last ten days of the month.
—This includes wheat exports of about 1.8 million tonnes, and barley and corn at 300,000 tonnes each. “2.01 million tonnes of grain was already exported by May 27. In total, from April 1 to May 27, 2020, exports were about 6.48 million tonnes
—The center’s calculations show that the export of grain for three months in April-June will be around 7.3 million tonnes, which will exceed the quota of 7 million tonnes, given that in April-May, some of the grain was shipped according to temporary declarations filed before April 1.
—Prices for Russian wheat with protein of 12.5% last week rose $0.5 per tonne to $198-199 per tonne; prices for August are $196-$197 per tonne, which is lower than in competing countries; a year earlier, the new crop was selling at $190 per tonne; the average current price for French wheat of the new crop is $208 per tonne, while the price for the old crop is $220 per tonne; for Ukrainian – $198.5 per tonne; and American – $216 per tonne.
Ukraine’s grain exports have reached a record 54.1 million tonnes so far in the 2019/20 season that began last July, up 17.4% year on year; the exported volume included 20.2 million tonnes of wheat, 28.4 million tonnes of corn and 4.8 million tonnes of barley; te country harvested a record 75.1 million tonnes of grain in 2019, up from 70 million tonnes in 2018.
Ukrainian wheat exports are likely to fall to about 18 million tonnes in the 2020/21 July-June season, from 20.5 million tonnes expected in 2019/20 season because of a smaller harvest.
The union also said Ukraine could increase its corn exports in the new season to a record 30 million tonnes, from 29 million tonnes in 2019/20.
Ukraine is likely to increase its soybeans harvest and exports in the 2020/21 season due to a higher yield.
—UGA said in a report Ukraine was likely to harvest 4.225 million tonnes of soybeans this year, up from 3.713 million in 2019.
—The union said higher output would help Ukraine to increase exports to 2.7 million tonnes in 2020/21 season from 2.675 million expected for the current season
French soft wheat crop ratings declined slightly last week to remain at their lowest since 2011 for this time of year.
—56% of soft wheat was rated good or excellent against 57% the previous week
—Hot, dry weather this week is expected to have increased pressure on crops after some rain earlier this month, although showers are forecast to return next week; soft wheat was running well ahead of its usual growth pace
Strategie Grains has further reduced its forecast for this year’s European Union rapeseed harvest, pegging the crop at 16.68 million tonnes compared with 17.02 million estimated a month ago; the downward revision, the fifth consecutive monthly cut to Strategie Grains’ EU rapeseed crop forecast, put the projected harvest below last year’s poor crop of 16.92 million tonnes and would mark a new low since 2006.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May rose 7.0 percent to 1,256,395 tonnes from 1,174,285 tonnes shipped during April, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said.
—Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-31 period are estimated to have risen 8.4% from a month earlier to 1,266,225 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said.
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