Written Commentary
SUPPLY/DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
- June WASDE report data in line with expectations
- No changes to US corn balance sheet for either 23/24, or 24/25 as expected
- Surprised no changes to Argentine or Brazil 23/24 production. Trade was looking for a 3 mmt drop in Argentina.
- US Soybean stocks for 23/24 rose 10 mil bu to 350 mil due to lower crush.
- Higher 23/24 stocks carried right thru to 10 mil higher on 24/25 as well, up to 455 mil.
- Brazil 23/24 crop only lowered 1 mmt to 153 mmt.
- US winter wheat production rose 17 mil to 1.295 bil exactly in line with pre-report est.
- No change to old crop stocks at 688 mil bu while new crop stocks fell 7 milbu offsetting higher production due to 25 mil bu increase in exports to 800 mil.
- Russian wheat production cut 5 mmt to 83 mmt.
Infographic
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