Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 2 cents, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 3, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil down 10 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 43 yuan, down 16 yuan in Corn, up 3 in Soymeal, down 16 in Soyoil, and down 38 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 19 ringgit at 2,426 (basis September) at midsession on concerns the surge in demand and exports may lose steam if there is a second wave of pandemic.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run suggested an upper level low pressure area to move into the Great Lakes Region/northeastern Corn Belt June 30 and then remain nearly stalled throughout much of the second week of the outlook; associated cool air was shown to remain nearly stalled in the Corn Belt, Hard Red Winter Wheat Region, and northern Delta.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 12,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 271,000 Corn; net long 32,000 Soybeans; net short 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 2,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,700; Corn up 10,400; Soybeans down 1,600 contracts; Soymeal down 780 lots, and; Soyoil up 800.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
Tender Activity—Japan seeks 101,000t optional-origin wheat—Indonesia, Philippines bought 50,000t U.S. white wheat—
President Donald Trump is tweeting that an initial trade agreement with China is still on after a top White House adviser’s comments seemed to suggest it was over, spooking markets late Monday; Trump tweeted: “The China Trade Deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the Agreement!”; the Trump administration has been extremely critical of China’s efforts to contain the novel coronavirus early on and the president repeatedly blames China for the pandemic in his remarks, leading to questions about future cooperation in areas such as trade; Peter Navarro, director of trade and manufacturing policy at the White House, told Fox News “it’s over,” when asked a question that was focused on the China trade deal.
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 29% (trade estimate was 30%) versus 15% last week, 13% a year ago, 26% average.
U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 52% good to excellent (trade estimate was 50%) versus 50% a week ago and 61% a year ago; 31% fair (31% last week, 28% a year ago); 17% poor to very poor (19% last week, 11% a year ago).
U.S. Spring Wheat headed was 12% versus 4% last week, 6% a year ago, 22% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 75% good to excellent (trade estimate was 80%) versus 81% last week, and 75% average; 21% fair (17% a week ago, 22% a year ago), and; 4% poor to very poor (2% last week, 3% a year ago).
U.S. Corn silking was 2% versus NA% a week ago, 1% last year, and 2% average.
Corn was rated 72% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 71% last week, and 56% a year ago; 23% fair (24% last week, 32% last year), 5% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% last year).
U.S. Oats headed were 58% versus 42% a week ago, 40% last year, and 61% average.
Oats were rated 65% good to excellent versus 66% last week and 64% a year ago; 27% fair (26% last week, 29% a year ago), and; 8% poor to very poor (8% last week, 7 a year ago).
U.S. Soybeans planted was 96% (trade estimate was 97%) versus 93% a week ago, 83% last year, and 93% average.
U.S. Soybeans blooming were 5% versus NA% a week ago, 1% a year ago, and 5% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 70% good to excellent (trade estimate was 71%) versus 72% a week ago, and 54% a year ago; 25% fair (24% last week, 36% a year ago), and; 5% poor to very poor (4% last week, 10% a year ago).
The current wet weather system in the Midwest could benefit US soybeans in the coming days, the US Department of Agriculture said; showers and thunderstorms across the upper Midwest, from Minnesota to Nebraska, are generally benefiting soybeans, the USDA said; in the coming days, as a cooler pattern develops across the country’s mid-section, widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur — totaling 1-3 inches or more — from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 10% ahead of a year ago (23% behind last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 23% behind a year ago (25% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are unchanged on the year (up 1% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
Export inspections of US soybeans are at their lowest levels in over two months, the USDA says; for a market relying on hype of increased Chinese buying to keep futures prices afloat, the report is bearish news; the grains industry still expecting bigger sales figures out of China and elsewhere; the world now needs to turn to the US for the next 6-7 months,” says Jim Sutter of the US Soybean Export Council.
To help meet continuing high demand for hand sanitizer, ADM announced it is significantly increasing production of industrial alcohol at its Clinton, IA corn processing complex.
China has approved the import of two new genetically modified (GM) soybean varieties, including one developed by local firm Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co Ltd, its agriculture ministry said, making it the first Chinese engineered soybean allowed for import; the crops approved for import will be used as feedstock.
Wire story reports U.S. soybean sales to China have finally started to resemble the pre-trade war era, but amid massive Brazilian shipments and the record build in Chinese soybean stocks, one cannot help wondering whether China will end up needing as many soybeans as the United States hopes to export later in the year; as of June 11, China had 3.05 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans booked for delivery in 2020-21, which starts on Sept. 1; that is China’s largest new-crop total for the date since 2014.
China’s soybean buyers are asking exporters to sign a letter guaranteeing that their cargoes are not contaminated with the coronavirus, said an official with the United States Soybean Export Council; the move comes as China tries to prevent any risk of new COVID-19 infections from imported goods as it takes aggressive measures to contain a recent spike in coronavirus infections linked to a sprawling wholesale food market in Beijing; last week the General Administration of Customs asked overseas suppliers of meat and fruit to sign declarations ensuring the safety of their shipments to China; efforts to ensure soybean cargoes are free from the coronavirus are coming from local customs authorities however, not Beijing.
CME Group Inc and Brazil’s stock exchange, B3 SA, on Monday announced plans for a Brazilian soybean futures contract aimed at local and global investors who want an alternative platform to manage risk; the contract would be settled in dollars and use a price benchmark reflecting soy’s export price at Brazil’s port of Santos, Latin America’s largest port; the exchanges aim to launch the contract, which is subject to regulatory approval, in the third quarter.
The wheat harvest in Russia, the world’s biggest exporter of the cereal, is set to reach 77.5 million tons this year, up 4% on 2019 and the second largest crop on record despite varied results throughout the country, French consultancy Agritel said; the wheat crop estimate was higher than Russia’s agriculture ministry’s forecast, but lower than ones from consultancies including IKAR which raised its forecast to 79.5 million tons on Monday from a previously expected 78.5 million.
IKAR, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said that it raised its estimate for Russia’s 2020/21 wheat exports by 2 million tons to 37 million tons; the increase was caused the upgrade of its forecast for Russia’s 2020 wheat crop to 79.5 million tons from the previously expected 78 million tons
Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices rose by $20-23 per ton over the last week thanks to a jump in demand from abroad, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said; Ukraine sunoil bid prices rose to $770-780 FOB Black Sea as of June 22 for delivery in July-August, versus $750-760 a week earlier, the consultancy said; the asking prices rose to $785-795 from $765-772.
The European Union cut an import duty on maize (corn) by 55% to 4.65 euros ($5.24) per ton, the bloc said in its official journal; the reduced tariff, effective as of Tuesday, will also apply to rye and sorghum imports; the bloc re-introduced an import duty on April 27 after a slump in U.S. prices to a 10-year low took the cost of imported U.S. maize below a regulatory price floor.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 33.23 million tons by June 21, official EU data showed; that was 64% above the volume cleared by June 16 last year
—EU 2019/20 barley exports had reached 7.07 million tons, up 64% from the same period a year earlier
—EU 2019/20 maize imports stood at 19.07 million tons, down 18%
European Union soybean imports in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 14.85 million tons by June 21, official EU data showed; that was 1% above the volume cleared by June 16 last year
—EU rapeseed imports in 2019/20 had reached 5.84 million tons, up 42% versus the same period a year earlier
—Soymeal imports so far in 2019/20 were up 2% at 17.47 million tons
—Palm oil imports were down 11% at 5.55 million tons
China said on Tuesday a Brazilian beef exporter and a pork plant in Britain had voluntarily suspended exports because of coronavirus infections.
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