Key Reversal in Cotton Ahead of USDA Report
Cocoa prices have seen coiling price action since mid-December as near-term demand concerns have made it difficult to maintain upside momentum. The market continues to hold its ground above the mid-December lows, however, as a positive longer-term demand outlook has helped to underpin prices.
Although it will start this week firmly within its recent consolidation zone, coffee may be on the verge of an extended upside move. For the week, May coffee finished with a gain of 1.65 cents (up 1.3%) which broke a 2-week losing streak.
A key reversal from the contract high on Friday for Cotton with the sharply lower close is a bearish technical development. The reversal suggests a near term peak may be in place. Part of the rally has been based on ideas that Chinese demand will stay strong and that US ending stocks will continue to tighten.
The market pushed up to a new contract high this morning. While it clearly benefited from strength in key outside markets, sugar has also found support from bullish supply/demand factors. If global markets can sustain a “risk on” mood, sugar can climb up to multi-year highs.
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