Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is unch. CU is unch. WU is down. KWU is unch. MWU is down. US stocks are unch. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower.
SU is near 9.59. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. This weeks, US Midwest forecast will be dry and warm. Premium are firming on increase demand but harvest looms. US exports are down 15 pct vs ly. USDA rated the US soybean crop 67 pct G/E vs 68 last week and 58 ly. Crop watcher est that 59 pct of crop has above trend yield outlook. Crops are best in NE,IA,MO,LA,AR,MS. Only 4 pct of crop has below trend yield outlook including ND, KY, TN. Trade est US 2024 soybean crop at 4.589 v 4,449 ly and carryout 537.
CU is near 3.61. Dalian corn futures were higher. Market sold off on talk of record US corn crop and lower wheat prices. This weeks, US Midwest forecast will be dry and warm. US farmer has a lot of corn to sell which limits rallies. US exports are up 39 pct vs ly. USDA rated the corn crop 65 pct G/E vs 67 last week. Crop watcher est that 63 pct of crop has above trend yield outlook. Crops are best in NE,IA,MO,IL,SD. Only 7 pct of crop has below trend yield outlook including TX, KS,TN. Trade also est US 2024 corn crop at 15,147 vs 15,342 ly and carryout 2,179.
WU is near 4.96. WU has broken below support on weak tech action. Russia wheat exporters remain aggressive sellers to cash buyers. US exports are up 28 pct vs ly USDA est US exports at 825 vs 709 ly. USDA est US HRS harvest at 51 pct. Crop was rated at 69 pct G/E vs 73 last week and 38 ly. Trade est US 2024 crop at 1,982 vs 1,812 ly and carryout 800.
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