Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down. CK is unch. WK is up. KWK is up. MWK is up. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is sharply lower on talk of reduced Middle East tension. Metals are higher on talk US is considering sanctions against China steel and aluminum. Fed Chairman suggesting delays in rate cuts.
SK is remains near key support. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. Lower US Dollar offered support to soybean futures. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 300-650 mt vs 305 last week. Some feel LH 2024 World soybean crush could be record high. Question is – will there be enough product demand to equal the higher supply. One group estimated SX fall low near 10.60, SMZ 307 and BOZ near 46. They assume a record US crop 4,535 mil bu, total demand near 4,415 and carryout near 485.
CK is near 4.39. US domestic cash remains firm. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 300-900 mt vs 325 last week. There remains talk of lower Argentina corn crop due to disease. 40 pct of Brazil second corn crop is yet to pollinate with hot dry condition over next 5-7 days. One group estimated CZ fall low near 4.30.They assume a US crop 14,890 mil bu, total demand near 14,735 and carryout near 2,245.
WK is near 5.41. Weekly US old crop wheat export sales are est near -100 to 200 mt vs 80 last week. New crop 150-400 mt vs 274 last week. China March wheat imports were record. Still, total imports should be near 11.0 vs 13.2 last year. EU helped finance Iraq wheat crop irrigation. This could increase production and reduce imports. One group estimated WZ fall low near 5.40.They assume a US crop 1,885 mil bu, total demand near 1,950 and carryout near 755.
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