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Lower Grain Outlook and Crop Rating

Grains are lower. SN is down 2cents and near 8.74. CN is down 3 cents and near 3.25. WN is down 2 cents and near 4.83. Seasonally, normal US summer weather suggest lower corn and soybean prices. US stocks, Crude and Gold are higher. US Dollar is lower.

Word that China is requesting written proof that meat and grain imports be guaranteed virus free raised concern about their imports from US. WTO said that the virus is no longer on meat after 72 hours. There are rumors that China state groups may be asking for more than 5 mmt corn TRQ due to heavy sales from the reserve.

Last night’s GFS model run suggested an upper level low pressure area to move into the US Great Lakes Region/northeastern Corn Belt June 30 and then remain nearly stalled throughout much of the second week of the outlook; associated cool air was shown to remain nearly stalled in the Corn Belt, Hard Red Winter Wheat Region, and northern Delta. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast calls for above normal temps and normal rains.

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 10% ahead of a year ago (23% behind last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year, Corn 23% behind a year ago (25% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season and Soybeans are unchanged on the year (up 1% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year.

USDA rated the US 2020 corn crop 72 pct good/ex. This was higher than expected. 5 pct of the crop has a yield below trend and in the state of OH. 46 pct of the crop yield is near trend yield and including IL, IN, MI, NE, ND, TN and TX. 49 pct of the crop yield is above trend including IA, MN, MO, SD and WI.

USDA rated the US 2020 soybean crop 70 pct good/ex. This was lower than expected. 8 pct of the crop has a yield below trend and in the state of ND. 42 pct of the crop yield is near trend yield and including AR, IL, IN, MI, MO, OH and TN. 43 pct of the crop yield is above trend including IA, MN, MO, SD and WI.

USDA estimated the 29 pct of the winter wheat crop was harvest including AR 79, IL 26, MO 41, KS 25, OK 85 and TX 85. Crop was rated 51 pct good/ex. USDA also rated the US spring wheat crop 75 pct good/ex. This was down from last week. ND has turned dry.

On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 43,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 259,000 Corn; net long 33,000 Soybeans; net short 50,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 1,000 Soyoil.

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