Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 23 cents and near 12.93. SX is down 25 cents and near 12.87. SMU is near 370.0. BOU is near 55.56. CU is down 15 cents and near 5.62. CZ is down 15 cents and near 5.50. WU is down 7 cents and near 6.58. KWU is down 7 cents and near 6.08. MWU is down 5 cents and near 7.61. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Copper is lower.
Lower trade is linked to fact all 3 weather maps show more rain this week across most of the central and east Midwest. Parts of the US north plains, NE, KS and PNW could miss the rains. Midwest temps could also be near normal. HRS prices could find support from lower US, Canada and Russia crops.
There was some talk China may be asking for US soybean prices. US fob $516 vs Argentina $481. China Dalian soybean, soymeal soyoil, palmoil prices traded higher. Corn was lower.
Most est US June 1 soybean stocks near 763 mil bu vs 1,381 ly. Mar-May exports 181 vs 246 ly. Same group could see US soybean acres near 88.5 vs USDA 87.6 and 83.1 ly. Cotton 11.8 vs 12.1 . SU may be in a 12.50-13.50 range until more is known about US summer weather. BOU 53-58.
Most est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,014 mil bu vs 5,003 ly. Mar-May exports 1,053 vs 606 ly. Same group could see US corn acres near 93.6 vs USDA 91.1 and 90.8 ly. Sorghum 7.1 vs 5.9 ly. CU may be in a 5.40-5.80 range until more is known about US summer weather, acres and June 1 stocks.
S Russia , Kazakhstan, Volga basin could see hot/dry sukhovey late this week and early next week.
Most est US June 1 wheat stocks near 841 mil bu vs 1,028 ly. Mar-May exports 263 vs 246 ly. Same group could see US all wheat acres near 46.2 vs USDA 46.4 and 44.3 LY. Rice 2.7 vs 3.0. WU may be in a 6.40-6.80 range until more is known about export demand and World HRS supply
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 11,000 SRW Wheat; 17,000 corn; 17,000 soybeans; 6,000 soymeal and 6,000 soyoil. CFTC report was delayed until Monday due to holiday. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 16,000 SRW wheat; long 245,000 corn, 82,000 soybeans, long 14,000 soymeal and
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
