Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Lower trade across the Ag space this AM ahead of weekly export sales data and USDA production and WASDE updates at midday. The Reuters survey shows traders expect little change in old crop corn and soybean stocks, while lower production and inventories from the 2026 harvest. After reaching fresh contract highs energy prices have slumped despite heightened tensions in the Middle East. Spot WTI crude oil is down $3.20 a barrel near $99.25 while RBOB is down $.06 per gallon with HO $.02 lower. The past 24 hours brought additional waves of rain across the nation’s midsection, perhaps of some benefit to later maturing soybeans. Precipitation will favor the NC Midwest over the next week, slowing crop maturation and early harvest efforts. Week 2 of the outlook has normal temperatures and precipitation for much of the nation’s midsection. Moderate to heavy rain across the interior south of Brazil with cooler than normal temperatures. Argentina is leaning normal temperatures while mostly dry. Above normal temperatures for all of Europe with scattered rains in the East. Continued dry for much of Ukraine. The US $$ is slightly higher ahead of today’s CPI data. Consumer prices are expected to have risen .4% in August while up 3.4% YOY. US stock indices are up .50%.
Corn:
Dec-26 futures are down $.04 ¾ at $5.29 while holding within yesterday’s range. Prices have held support just above $5.25 this week awaiting today’s USDA data. The ave trade guess has production slipping nearing 250 mil. bu. to 15.785 bil. bu., with an average yield of 178.2 bpa. Ending stocks are expected to fall to just over 1.5 bil vs. USDA est. of 1.653 bil. Healthy buying yesterday took the large speculative position back above 400k contracts. The BAGE held Argentine production at 64 mmt, vs. the USDA’s 63 mmt estimate. Old crop harvest reached 97% with 2026/27 plantings at 5.5%. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports exports as of Sept. 11th for the 26/27 MY at 1.77 mmt are actually up from only .9 mmt YA. US export sales are expected to range from 16–76 mil. bu. for both marketing years combined
Soybeans:
Nov-26 beans are down $.11 ¾ at $13.20 ½ after trading to a new contract high overnight. Oct-26 meal is down $1.60 at $349 while Oct-26 oil is down 117 points at 70.24. Crush margins are off $.05 ½ at $2.38 ½ bu. with bean oil PV back below 50%. The Ave. trade guess has soybean production slipping 18 mil. bu. to 4.501 bil. bu. with an average yield of 52.5 bpa. Stocks are expected to slip to 298 mil. vs. 320 in August. Chinese purchases of US beans are likely approaching 13 mmt with Chinese leader Xi to visit Washington in 2 weeks. Speculative holdings in soybeans and meal are at or near record length while the bean oil long position at 110k remains historically large. US Gulf FOB offers remain $.15-$.25 below Brazilian offers through the end of 2026, however both are well above offers from Argentina. The prospects for higher US demand leaves little room for US yields to fall from the current 52.7 bpa forecast, or risk sharply lower stocks and even higher prices. Export sales are expected to range from 20-95 mil. bu. of beans, 150-900k tons of meal and 0-12k tons of oil.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.02-$.06 lower in 2-sided trade overnight. CGO Dec-26 is $.03 lower at $7.40, KC Dec-26 is down $.05 ½ at $8.13 ¼ while Dec-26 MIAX is $.02 ½ lower at $7.60. Russia claims to have struck a dry cargo ship near Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port while also attacking an oilseed processing plant in the Eastern city of Dnipro. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports exports as of Sept. 11th at 2.03 mmt are down 43% YOY. Yesterday Expana lowered EU production by another .7 mmt to 126.1 mmt, well below the Aug-26 USDA est. of 134.2. The Reuters poll shows traders expect little change in wheat stocks at 717 mil. bu. in Aug-26, vs. our estimate of 727 mil. bu. Export sales are expected to range from 9-18 mil. bu.
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