Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 2 cents and near 12.74. SMH is near 380.2. BOH is near 48.44. CH is unch and near 4.64. WH is down 3 cents and near 5.96. KWH is down 4 cent and near 6.17. MWH is unch and near 7.08. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher on increase Middle East tension. There is talk that Libya shutdown largest oilfield due to protest. Gold is higher with US Dollar lower. How many times will US Central Bank lower rates?
CH is near 4.60. Dry Brazil has seen needed rains with more coming. 2024 US corn stocks will increase. Managed funds remain net short corn futures going into next Fridays USDA reports. US corn export price in near $208, Brazil $213 and Ukraine $175. There is some concern about Black Sea corn exports to Asia and Middle East. US export sales delayed until Friday. US ethanol margins continue to be lower. Some est US farmer corn sales only near 30-35 pct. China will soon announce 2024 TRQ import numbers. Corn could be 25-28 mmt. Trade will watch CONAB and USDA est of Brazil corn crop. Most est are below 120 mmt vs USDA 129.
SH is near 12.74. Global crush is forecasted to increase which is negative soymeal. US Biodiesel production may have peaked with lower margins and what feed stock is being used? Trade is worried that China may be done buying US soybeans for now. US export sales delayed until Friday. Some est US farmer soybean sales only near 65-70 pct. Funds are now a small soybean short, long less soymeal than expected and short more soyoil than expected.US soybean export price is near $501, Brazil $467 Argentina May $436. July Brazil soybean export prices is 85 cents lower than US. US soymeal export price is $462, Brazil $439 and May Argentina $396. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil prices were lower. Trade will watch CONAB and USDA est of Brazil crop. 160 mmt is negative, 155 neutral and 150 positive.
WH is near 6.00. US export sales delayed until Friday. US farmer and most World farmers have been reluctant sellers of wheat. US should increase to make space and pay bills. Managed funds added to short wheat futures. US plains, EU and Black sea winter wheat crops have little snow cover with colder temps forecasted. World wheat import buying has slowed. Weather and logistics worries has slowed Russia export but supplies are adequate and should pick up. Matif wheat futures are making new lows on lower demand. US SRW export price is near $254 and Russia $245. China will soon announce 2024 TRQ import numbers. Wheat could be 9.5-10.5 mmt.
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