Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 10 May
There will be a singular market focus on US CPI, though there is plenty of overnight data to digest; South Korea Unemployment, Norwegian CPI, Swedish activity indicators, German final CPI, and ahead lies Italy Industrial Production and US Treasury Budget. The day’s run of central bank speakers (mostly European/UK) will be primarily focussed on financial stability, which may get rather more attention than usual, given the concerns around the US banking sector, with rates seen on hold in Romania. Govt bond supply is plentiful, with the UK selling 10-yr, Germany 27 & 30-yr and the US 10-yr. Europe will be the focal point for corporate earnings, with the likes of ABN AMRO Bank, Credit Agricole, E.On, HeidelbergCement, Telecom Italia, TUI and Vestas reporting, while across the pond the spotlight on Walt |Disney and Brookfield Asset Management.
** U.S.A. – April CPI **
CPI is expected to see headline rise 0.4% m/m to leave the y/y rate unchanged at 5.0%, and core to rise 0.3% m/m to push the y/y rate down to a still stubbornly high 5.5% from 5.6%. Headline will be pressured higher by gasoline prices (though that will be reversed in May), even though the overall energy price gain will be tempered by the drop in NatGas prices. Core goods prices will likely see some upward pressure on car prices, and indeed other household goods prices as retail inventories are now better balanced, and retailers less willing to offer discounts. As for core services, much will depend on OER (rents), which should start to act as a drag, after a protracted period of upward pressure. Any assessment of an upward surprise on CPiI will have to consider both the likelihood of a reversal in May (due to energy prices and easing housing pressures) and of course tightening credit conditions.
To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email email@example.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.