Written Commentary
Please note, this will be the final update ahead of the Easter break, with limited updates next week, and none the following week, due to holidays
EVENTS PREVIEW
A busy day for US statistics, but little more elsewhere than the overnight Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence and Brazil’s IPCA-15 inflation ahead. CEE and EM central bank rate decisions are expected to see rates cut a further 75 bps in Hungary, while a 125 bps hike to 24.0% is expected in Nigeria, with risks skewed to the upside given higher than expected inflation data. Govt bond supply is plentiful, with the UK selling 4-yr, Netherlands 5-yr, Germany ‘green’ 2 & 10-yr and the US $67 Bln 5-yr. Following on from the 2 day China Development Forum, the focus turns to the annual Boao Forum (aka China’s Davos), while elsewhere there is a smattering of central bank speakers, and UK PM Sunak testifies to Parliament’s Liaison Committee.
** U.S.A. – Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods & House Prices **
– Consumer Confidence is forecast to be little changed at 106.8, with support from still solid labour demand, though higher gasoline prices may weigh a little, and the focus is likely to be on the Labour Differential, which gave back much of its December & January gains, but at 27.8 still remains above November’s cyclical low of 23.0. Headline Durable Goods Orders should get a boost (1.2% m/m) from a recovery in Boeing orders, while core measures are seen up 0.4% ex-Transport and 0.2% on Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft, with perhaps some upside risk given notable improvements in regional Fed surveys’ CapEx intentions metrics. CoreLogic CS & FHFA house prices are expected to have risen modestly (0.2%/0.3% m/m), though y/y rates will be boosted by base effects.
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