Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 21-25 July 2025

The Week Ahead – Preview: 

The new week features an expected no change decision at the ECB meeting and at China’s monthly Loan Prime Rate fixings, a lighter run of second tier data that includes G7 & India flash PMIs, German Ifo and a raft of other surveys; US Durable Goods Orders, New and Existing Home Sales; UK Retail Sales and PSNB, Japan Tokyo CPI, and Canada Q2 BoC Business Outlook and Retail Sales. The US Q2 earnings season gets into full swing with 110 S&P 500 companies reporting, among the highlights are likely to be Alphabet, Coca Cola, General Motors, Intel and Tesla. Given very rich valuations as well as the array of economic and political risks, the busy run of earnings reports (and outlooks) over the next 3 weeks may prove critical to sentiment. Politically there are Sunday’s Japan Upper House election results to digest, the August 1 US trade tariffs deadline looms as the EU-China Summit that will focus on trade and security takes place in Beijing, US president Trump is scheduled to meet with UK PM Starmer on the sidelines of a private visit to Scotland. Earnings will also be front and centre for metals and energy sectors via way of Eni, Equinor, Newmont, Norsk Hydro, Phillips 66 and Teck Resources and TotalEnergies, and Q2 production reports from Anglo American and Vale, while the EU’s JRC MARS Crop Bulletin tops the agricultural sector’s agenda, along with various USDA monthly livestock reports.

– ECB is set to hold rates at 2.0%, with the statement likely to be little changed from June, when it opined: “While the uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh on business investment and exports, especially in the short term, rising government investment in defence and infrastructure will increasingly support growth over the medium term. Higher real incomes and a robust labour market will allow households to spend more. Together with more favourable financing conditions, this should make the economy more resilient to global shocks.” This would leave the door open to a further rate cut later in the year, as has been the general message from the majority of ECB speakers since June. The ECB also publishes its Q2/Q3 Bank Lending survey on Tuesday.

– PMIs/Surveys: the run of G7 flash PMIs, Germany’s Ifo and other national surveys are expected to be unchanged to marginally better than in June, with Services readings expanding marginally in the Eurozone, and modestly better in the UK and US, while Manufacturing readings remain in contraction in UK and Eurozone, but expanding in the US. Details on Exports Orders and Prices Paid will be closely monitored.

– Japan Upper House elections: at the time of writing, exit polls point to the LDP-Komeito coalition expected to lose its majority, but PM Ishiba vowing to stay on, even though the LDP would be in a minority position in both houses of the Diet for the first time since the 1950s. As Ishiba noted, the question now is how to avoid a ‘political vacuum’, which would hamper efforts to stimulate the economy, quell consumer concerns about inflation, and above all hinder trade talks with the US, with US Treasury Secretary Bessant visiting Japan this week. For historical context, the last three Japanese PMs that have lost upper house elections, including Abe in his first PM term have stood down within 2 months of those elections.

– Worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News are likely to include: Alphabet, America Movil, Ameriprise Financial, Aon, ASM International, AT&T, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Baker Hughes, Blackstone, BNP Paribas, Boston Scientific, BT Group, Canadian National Railway, Canon, Capital One Financial, Charter Communications, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Chubb, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin, CME Group, Coca-Cola, Crown Castle, CSX, Danaher, Dassault Aviation, Dassault Systemes, Delta Electronics Thailand, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Digital Realty Trust, Dover, DR Horton, Eni, EQT, Equifax, Equinor, First Citizens BancShares, Freeport-McMoRan, Galderma, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, General Motors, Givaudan, HCA Healthcare, HDFC Bank, Hexagon, Hilton Worldwide, Honeywell International, Iberdrola, IBM, ICICI Bank,Infosys, Intel, Intuitive Surgical, Iqvia, KB Financial, Keurig Dr Pepper, Kuehne + Nagel International, L3Harris Technologies, Lindt & Spruengli, Lloyds Banking, Loblaw, Lockheed Martin, Lonza Group, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Moody’s, MSCI, Nasdaq, Naturgy Energy Group, NatWest, Nestle, Nestle India, Newmont, NextEra Energy, Nokia, Northrop Grumman, NXP Semiconductors, O’Reilly Automotive, Otis Worldwide, Paccar, Philip Morris International, Phillips 66, Poste Italiane, Raymond James Financial, Reckitt Benckiser, Relx, Roche Holding, Rollins, Roper Technologies, RTX, Ryanair, Samsung Biologics, SAP, ServiceNow, Sherwin-Williams, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Shinhan Financial, SK Hynix, STMicroelectronics, Synchrony Financial, T-Mobile US, TE Connectivity, Tesla, Texas Instruments, Thales, Thermo Fisher Scientific, TotalEnergies, Tractor Supply, UltraTech Cement, UniCredit, Union Pacific, United Rentals, Valero Energy, VeriSign, Verizon Communications, Volkswagen, W. R. Berkley, Waste Connections, WEG, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies.