Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 27 to 31 October 2025

The Week Ahead – Preview: 

What goes well with an ‘everything rally’ (bubble)? An ‘everything week’ that is replete with key geopolitical (above all Trump/Xi meeting) events, a host of major central bank meetings (Fed, ECB, BoC and BoJ), a raft of GDP and inflation statistics and China NBS PMIs, over 1/3 of all S&P companies reporting Q3 earnings (notably many Mag 7) as well as a deluge of corporate reports in Asia, Europe and Latin America, and an array of major commodity, energy and infrastructure conferences. The US government remains in shutdown, so there will be no US official data, with little sign of either side being willing to reach a compromise, while the US Supreme Court is soon due to rule on whether the sweeping US tariffs imposed worldwide using emergency executive have exceeded presidential authority. There are various warning signs from some still relatively muted USD repo market strains, very tight credit spreads amid a rise in defaults, very low fund cash allocations, as well as the very lofty level of equity valuations, above all in the tech sector, but the consensus still views these as more idiosyncratic than systemic. But as financial markets’ history more than amply demonstrates, it is generally the case that ‘it’s all OK until it is not’.

Politics: briefings on the weekend meetings between US and Chinese officials in Malaysia suggest that a) the US 100% tariff threat to China is ‘off the table’, and b) that some form of framework agreement on issues such as export controls, ship/port levies and fentanyl, as well as c) an extension of tariff truce could be signed off when Trump and Xi meet on Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in South Korea. This may prove to be rather more ambiguous in terms of the details, as many ‘deals’ or ‘agreements’ this year have proven to be, but markets will likely side with a ‘glass half full’ interpretation, as is their wont, above all in a world of ‘fiat money’, where G4 central bank balance sheets still totalled $19.28 Bln as of end September. Europe and Ukraine’s 12-point peace plan to end the war with Russia is being finalised, but there is little sign that Moscow is willing to negotiate or make any concessions on its demands for Ukraine to cede territory for a peace deal. The ceasefire in Gaza is holding rather more nominally than in reality, and while that is the case, the pledges made by some GCC countries for financing the reconstruction of Gaza will remain just that, rather than deployed and available capital.

Economy / Central banks

USA: Q3 advance GDP, Personal Income/PCE, Good Trade Balance and Durable Goods Orders are among the statistics that were due to be, but will not be published, notably the consensus for Q3 GDP is for a modest setback to 3.0% SAAR from Q2’s 3.0%, though Personal Consumption is estimated to have picked up to 3.2% from 2.5%, and the GDP deflator to 2.9% from 2.1% – not exactly forecasts that are screaming out for one or more further FOMC rate cuts. However, Consumer Confidence is expected to ease to 93.4 after dropping from 97.8 to 94.2 in September, which saw the Labour Differential (Jobs Plentiful minus Hard to Get) fall to 7.8, its lowest reading since February 2021. Pending Home Sales, Dallas & Richmond Fed surveys and Cotality CS House Prices will also be published. But all eyes will be on the FOMC meeting, where a further 25 bps rate cut to 3.75%/4.0% is expected, with Miran certain to vote for a larger cut, though perhaps more interest in whether Powell can maintain the consensus otherwise. That also applies to an anticipated announcement that the Fed will end its balance sheet reduction (QT) programme. While Friday’s CPI data was below forecasts at 0.3% m/m 3.0% y/y headline and 0.2%/3.0% core, there were notable larger gains (0.7% to 0.9% m/m) on clothing, furniture and household appliances, symptomatic of tariff related pressures, and Services ex-Housing remains above 3.0% y/y which may prompt some more hawkish FOMC members to voice dissent – Hammack (non-voter), Musalem and/or Schmid, and even Waller who was arguing for a 50 bps cut earlier in the year has become more cautious mostly due to solid growth. The dovish faction will prevail for the time being, but Fed messaging will likely be notably more dissonant.

Japan: the end-of-month rush of data includes Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, though all of these will be published the day after the BoJ meeting. Industrial Production and Retail Sales are expected to rebound sharply from weak August readings, with Production seen boosted both by Autos (following the trade deal with the US) and AI-boom related demand for semiconductors. More poignantly, Tokyo CPI is expected to ease 0.1 ppt to 2.4% y/y on headline, but rise 0.1 ppt to 2.6% on core, with ex-Fresh Food & Energy unchanged at 2.5%. The BoJ is expected to defer a further interest rate hike and hold at 0.50%, largely in deference to continued political uncertainty, with the basic outlines of the new Takaichi coalition government’s stimulus and inflation fighting measures lacking any detail, which will have to be hammered out in negotiations with the various opposition parties to pass legislative muster in the Diet. Some upward tweaks to CPI and GDP are anticipated in its forecast update, though this will make a decision to hold rates at this meeting an even more difficult ‘sell’ for Governor Ueda after a hawkish message in September, and the likelihood of hawkish dissenting votes. Particular note will need to be given to comments about the JPY, given currency weakness has been a swing factor in favour of rate hike decisions in this gentle tightening cycle.

Eurozone: the ECB has been very determined to signal that its key policy rates are on hold for the foreseeable future, and that is likely to be the message from Lagarde at the post meeting press conference, noting downside risks to growth, and risks on both sides of the inflation outlook, though at the current juncture rates are the appropriate level to keep CPI around target. Statistically, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate kicks off the week, with all measures seen edging up 0.3 pt, but remaining at depressed levels, with a particular focus on whether the survey echoes the surprising and sharp jump in Friday’s Services PMI. But the focal points for the week will be Q3 GDP and provisional CPI for October. Q3 GDP readings are likely to repeat a familiar pattern, with Spain posting solid though slower (0.6% q/q) growth, but very weak growth elsewhere with France up 0.2% q/q, Italy 0.1% q/q, and Germany flatlining after contracting -0.3% q/q in Q2, which would leave Eurozone GDP on track for just 0.1% q/q. The impact of tariffs is likely to see a drag from net exports, but should be offset by a modest boost from private consumption, with CapEx (barely expanding) and Inventories likely to be the wild cards. Provisional CPI is expected to be well behaved, with headline easing to target at 2.0% y/y, and core dipping back to 2.4% y/y. The ECB’s quarterly surveys on Bank Lending and of Professional Forecasters are also on tap.

China: All eyes will be on the Trump/Xi meeting and hopes for an easing of tensions, and put some of the overall tensions in abeyance, but as this year has demonstrated, the risk that these trade and geopolitical tensions between the world’s two leading economies resurfaces will remain. The latest Industrial Profits data saw a welcome though modest acceleration to 3.2% y/y from 0.9%, but as will be the case over the next 3 months, the improvement will likely owe everything to favourable base effects, rather than signalling easing of pressures on margins or an improvement in domestic demand. Per se, the primary focus remains on what measures the authorities will take to boost private consumption. NBS PMIs are forecast to show a slight drop in the Manufacturing PMI to 49.6, and a small improvement in Non-manufacturing to 50.2, November readings will perhaps be of greater interest to see if there is any impact from measures to counter ‘involution’ (pricing competition) and/or a boost from whatever is agreed with the US.

Asia: remains the engine of world growth and has fared a lot better than many had feared in the face of US tariffs, thanks in no small part to the AI boom. As such a close eye needs to be kept on various national Q3 GDP readings, with South Korea forecast to accelerate to 1.0% q/q (from 0.7%), while Taiwan is expected to slow to as still very robust 6.0% y/y (from an outsized 8.0% in Q2), while Hong Kong contracts marginally (-0.1% q/q 3.0% y/y). Attention also needs to be given to Q3 GDP in Saudi Arabia, which saw a hefty upward revision to IMF forecasts for 2025 to 4.0%, with Q3 likely to see an acceleration from Q2’s 3.9% y/y. But the details will be important, as much of the boost will likely come from increased oil production, rather than the non-oil sector, which faces headwinds as ambitious govt spending plans to expand the sector face headwinds from spending cuts due to the lower oil price, which will likely drag 2026 GDP back to 2.5%-3.0%. Elsewhere, Australia looks to quarterly CPI, which is expected to accelerate to 1.1% q/q 3.0% y/y (from Q2’s 2.1%), mostly due to pressures on food, fuel and utilities, while the core Trimmed Mean is forecast to rise 0.8% q/q, leaving the y/y rate unchanged at 2.7%. If core CPI forecasts are correct, then this should open the door to a further 25 bps rate cut at the November RBA meeting, with the central bank likely maintaining a cautious easing bias. The consensus anticipates a 25 bps rate cut to 2.25% from the Bank of Canada, despite higher than expected CPI and a solid rise in September Employment, both of which have been largely dismissed by BoC governor Macklem, who depicted underlying labour demand and growth as weak. The risk is that the BoC holds at this month’s meeting, but gives a fairly clear signal that a cut is coming at the December meeting.

In the commodities space, the week gets underway with the EU MARS Crop Conditions report, before attention turns to a swathe of earnings from major energy companies (Chevron, Equinor, Exxon Mobil, CNOOC, Sheel, Sinopec, TotalEnergies i.a.) and resource producers and processors (Chalco, China Coal, Ganfeng Lithium, Jiangxi Copper, Vale i.a.), and the likes of bellwethers such as Caterpillar. Saudi Arabia’s annual Future Investment Initiative Forum headlines a busy run of China conferences about Silver, Aluminium, Cobalt and Nickel, while India hosts a major Rice conference. Otherwise, oil prices will continue to focus on proposed US sanctions on Russian oil, above all, on what is said after the US/China meeting in this respect.

There are 172 S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with worldwide corporate earnings highlights as compiled by Bloomberg News likely to include: AbbVie, Adani Power, Adidas, ADP, Advantest, Aena SME, Agnico Eagle Mines, Agricultural Bank of China, Airbus, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Alphabet, Altria, Amazon, Ambev, American Tower, American Water Works, Ameriprise Financial, Ametek, Amrize, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Aon, Apple, Arch Capital, Argenx, Arthur J Gallagher, ASE Technology, ASM International, Atlassian, AvalonBay Communities, Avic Chengdu Aircraft, Avic Shenyang Aircraft, Banco Bradesco, Banco Santander, Bank of China, Bank of Jiangsu, Bank of Ningbo, BASF, BBVA, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway, Bharat Electronics, Bloom Energy, Blue Owl Capital, BNP Paribas, Boeing, Booking, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Brown & Brown, BYD, Cadence Design Systems, CaixaBank, Canadian National Railway, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Canon, Cardinal Health, Carrier Global, Carvana, Caterpillar, Cboe Global Markets, Celestica, Central Japan Railway, CGN Power, Charter Communications, Cheniere Energy, Chevron, China Citic Bank, China Construction Bank, China CSSC, China Everbright Bank, China Life Insurance, China Merchants Bank, China National Nuclear Power, China Northern Rare Earth High-Tech, China Pacific Insurance, China Petroleum & Chemical, China State Construction Engineering, China Yangtze Power, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cigna, Cloudflare, Cnooc, Coal India, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Coinbase Global, Colgate-Palmolive, Comcast, Corning, Cosco Shipping, CoStar Group, Credit Agricole, CRRC, CSC Financial, CVS Health, Daiichi Sankyo, Danske Bank, Delta Electronics, Denso, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Dexcom, Disco, Dominion Energy, DR Horton, DTE Energy, East Japan Railway, EBay, Ecolab, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Emcor, Emirates Telecommunications, Endesa, Entergy, Enterprise Products Partners, Eoptolink Technology, Epiroc, Equinix, Equinor, Erste Group Bank, Estee Lauder, Extra Space Storage, Exxon Mobil, Fanuc, Ferrovial, Fiserv, Fomento Economico Mexicano, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Fujitsu, Galp Energia, Garmin, GE HealthCare Technologies, Gilead Sciences, Gree Electric Appliances of Zhuhai, GSK, Guotai Haitong Securities, Haier Smart Home, Haleon, Hartford Insurance Group, Hershey, Hitachi, Howmet Aerospace, Hoya, HSBC, Huadian New Energy, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower, Huatai Securities, Iberdrola, Imperial Oil, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Industrial Bank of China, ING, Ingersoll Rand, Insmed, Intercontinental Exchange aka ICE, Intesa Sanpaolo, Iqvia, ITC, Japan Tobacco, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, KB Financial, Kellanova, Keurig Dr Pepper, Keyence, Kimberly-Clark, KLA, Komatsu, Kongsberg Gruppen, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Kraft Heinz, Kweichow Moutai, L3Harris Technologies, Larsen & Toubro, LG Energy Solution, Linde, LPL Financial, Luxshare Precision Industry, Luzhou Laojiao, Maruti Suzuki India, Mastercard, MediaTek, MercadoLibre, Mercedes-Benz, Merck, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Midea Group, Mitsubishi Electric, Mondelez International, Monolithic Power Systems, Motorola Solutions, MSCI, Murata Manufacturing, Nari Technology, Naturgy Energy, Naura Technology, NEC, New China Life Insurance, NextEra Energy, Novartis, Nucor, NXP Semiconductors, Old Dominion Freight Line, Oneok, Oriental Land, Otis Worldwide, Otsuka, Panasonic, PayPal, People’s Insurance Group of China, PetroChina, Phillips 66, PICC Property & Casualty, Ping An Insurance, Postal Savings Bank of China, Prudential Financial, Prysmian, Public Storage, Quanta Services, Reddit, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Republic Services, ResMed, Restaurant Brands International, Roblox, Rocket, Rollins, Royal Caribbean Cruises, S&P Global, SAIC Motor, Samsung Biologics, Samsung C&T, Samsung Electronics, Sany Heavy Industry, Seagate Technology, Seres Group, ServiceNow, SF Holding, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Shell, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, Sherwin-Williams, Shinhan Financial, SK Hynix, Societe Generale, SoFi Technologies, Southern Company, Standard Chartered, Starbucks, Strategy, Stryker, Sumitomo, Sungrow Power Supply, Sysco, Takeda Pharmaceutical, TDK, TE Connectivity, Tokyo Electron, TotalEnergies, Toyota Industries, Toyota Tsusho, Trane Technologies, UBS, UnitedHealth, Universal Music, UPS, Vale, Ventas, Veralto, Verisk Analytics, Verizon Communications, Vici Properties, Victory Giant Technology Huizhou, Vingroup, Visa, Volkswagen, Vulcan Materials, Wal-Mart de Mexico, Waste Management, WEC Energy, Welltower, Western Digital, Willis Towers Watson, Wuliangye Yibin, WW Grainger, Xcel Energy, Xylem, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Zhongji Innolight.