Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is unch. CN is unch. WN is down. KWN is down. MWN is down. Monday grain trade was technically negative. US stocks are higher and new highs. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed near $80. Gold is lower. CBOT is closed Wednesday for holiday.
SN is near 11.58. SN-SX spread is +28. Managed funds increased net soybean and soyoil short. More technical selling with focus on end of month USDA acreage and stocks report and summer weather. C and S Midwest will see 10 days of hot and dry weather. Ridge moves west after 10 days. Soybean exports are 1,502 mil bu and down 17 pct vs ly. May NOPA soybean crush was record 183.8 mil bu with July board crush margin 120 and highest since Sep,2023. Soyoil stocks were 1,724 mil lbs and down 6 pct vs last month. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices were higher. USDA rated the US soybean crop at 70 pct G/E vs 54 ly. 53 pct of crop near trend yield, 34 above.
CN is near 4.44. CN-CZ spread is -19. Managed funds increased net corn short. Dalian corn futures are lower. C and S Midwest will see 10 days of hot and dry weather. Ridge moves west after 10 days. Corn exports are 1,591 mil bu and up 27 pct vs ly. USDA rated the US corn crop at 72 pct G/E vs 55 ly. 48 pct of crop near trend yield, 41 above. Brazil corn prices are lower as safrina harvest advanced. Crop estimates range from 114-125 mmt and USDA 122. China May corn imports were 1.0 mmt and lowest since 2019/20 season. Season to date exports are 22.4 mmt with 4 months left in season USDA goal is 23.
WN is near 5.85. WN-WZ spread is -42. US and EU harvest is weighing on US and EU futures.. US winter wheat harvest is 27 pct. USDA rated the crop 49 pct G/E vs 47 last week. Gains were in KS and OK. TX and CO dropped. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 76 pct G/E. ND is 82. Canada crop was rated above average. Ukraine estimated the 40-50 pct of 21 mmt crop milling quality vs 20 pct of last year 23 mmt crop. US wheat exports are up 21 pct vs ly and USDA looking for 11 pct gain.
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