Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
March Madness. Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch near $67. Gold is unch. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility. Ukraine and Russia exchanged drone attacks overnight. US Fed wait and see on tariffs and inflation. Trade now est 2 interest cuts in 2025 vs 3 thought earlier.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.05. SK support is 10.00. 10.25 is resistance. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. S Brazil is dry. Argentina is dry but rain next week. USDA acreage and March 1 stocks report next. Trade could see US 2025 acres near 83.0 vs 87.0 ly. Stocks 1,880 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. Trade est US weekly soybean export sales near 400-900 mt vs 751 last week. Abiove est Brazil crop at 170.9 mmt vs 171.7 previous. Brazil crush uo 3 pct vs ly and at 57.5 mmt and exports 106.1. USDA China Ag attache est soybean imports at 106.0 mmt. Trade War, tariffs and global weather adds to trade uncertainty. US and China will talk Monday on US increase tax on China vessels entering US ports.
CORN
CK is near 4.60. 4.55 is key support. 4.65 is resistance. Dalian corn futures were lower. S Brazil remains dry. Brazil ethanol production increas6ing. US NW Midwest is dry. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 mil corn acres vs 90.6 last year and summer weather is normal. Trade could see US March 1 stocks near 8,200 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,700 mt vs 967 last week. US weekly ethanol production was up 5 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 2 pct vs last year. Combined higher ethanol production and export demand supported CK. Turkey announced imports of 1.0 mmt corn.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.60. KWK is near 5.91. MWK is near 6.10. Wheat is supported by dry weather across US south plains and Black Sea. Todays maps reduced the chance for KS rain. US 2025 all wheat acres could be near 46.6 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,225 mil bu vs 1,089 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-7000 mt vs 783 last week. Turkey announced wheat imports. This rallied Russia wheat prices.
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