Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Rains are falling across N EU. China wheat areas mostly dry. West Canada is dry. EU model calls for 2 Midwest rains. 11-15 day adds rain for IA/IL. More rain is forecast for OK, E KS, MO , IL, IN and OH. NOAA 30 day calls for normal to above rains and temps for US Midwest. Crude is higher due to increase tension between Ukraine and Russia after Ukraine attacked Russia air basis deep inside Russia. Stocks are lower and gold is higher after China pushed back on Trump accusation last week that China broke a temporary trade agreement souring market hopes for lasting resolution to trade tension. Trump has also threatened to double import tax on steel and aluminum.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.34 and lowest weekly close in 6 weeks. Trade est 84 pct of US crop is planted and crop rated 64-66 pct G/E. US April crush is est at 201.8 mil bu vs 177.6 ly. White House is weighing plan to give immediate relief to 2024 biofuel exemption request. March US soyoil use for biofuel was less than expected and could force USDA to lower US domestic use. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They increased 2025/26 crush 60 mil bu vs USDA but dropped exports 215 mil bu. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295.
CORN
CN is near 4.44. CZ is near 4.38. Favorable US weather could drop CZ closer to 4.10. Some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020. There is also talk that some US open and unshipped corn sales could be cancelled. Brazil 2nd corn crop est range from 108-118 mmt. Conab 99.8. This suggest total crop 130-140 mmt vs USDA 130 and Conab 127. US corn planting is near 90 pct and crop rating should show improvement. More rain is forecast for south and Ohio valley.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.38. WN support is 5.25. Resistance 5.50. Argentina wheat futures are lower and near 5 month lows with 10 pct of crop planted. Matif futures traded lower into consumer buying. Winter wheat futures could drop due to better EU and Russia crops. Spring higher on low US ratings and dry Canada.
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