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Market Carry is Record Wide


Grains are mixed. SX is up. CZ is down. WZ is down. US stocks are higher US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $89. Gold, silver and coffee are higher. Copper and sugar are lower. Cocoa remains near season high. Higher energy and labor cost cutting into corporate profits.

Soybean futures are slightly higher. Dalian soybean, soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil  and soyoil futures were higher. Trade est weekly US soybean export sales near 600-1,450 mt vs 1,783 last week. USDA est World soybean trade near 168.4 mmt vs 170.1 ly. Brazil 97.0 mmt vs 95.0 ly. US 48.7 vs 54.1 ly. China imports 100.0 mmt vs 102.0 ly. World soymeal trade is est at 69.9 mmt vs 66.7 ly. Argentina 46.3 vs 44.4, Brazil 22.0 vs 21.5 and US 13.7 vs 13.1. N/C Brazil and W Argentina are dry. S Brazil and NE Argentina are wet. Brazil and Argentina dryness could switch corn acres to beans. US August NOPA crush est at 168.0 mil bu vs 165.0 ly. SBO stocks 1.483 mil lbs vs 1,564 last month and 1,525 ly.

Corn futures dropped below key support. Dalian corn futures are higher CZ appears unable to trade over 5.00 due to high US carryout and harvest pressure while may not be able to trade below 4.70 due to competitor exporters logistic problems . Trade est weekly US corn export sales near 500-1,100 mt vs 949 last week. USDA est World corn trade near 196.2 mmt vs 181.6 ly. Brazil 55.0 mmt vs 57.0 ly. US 52.1 vs 42.3 ly. Argentina 40.5 vs 23.0 ly. Ukraine 19.5 vs 28.0 ly. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2.7 pct vs last week and up 7.9 vs ly. Stocks were down 2 pct vs last week and lowest since Dec, 2021 and down 7 pct vs ly.

Wheat futures are lower. Tuesday rally linked to increase Black Sea tension. Australia futures are higher. Dry weather continues. Argentina dropped wheat crop to 15.0 mmt vs 15.6 previous and USDA 16.5. Globally, divergence between hi pro wheat and feed is record high. Market carry is also record wide with nearby cheap and deferred higher. Appears Russia will continue to average record monthly wheat exports near 5.0 mmt. Ukraine wheat exports are half of last year. Trade est weekly US wheat export sales near 250-600 mt vs 370 last week. USDA est World wheat trade near 207.3 mmt vs 218.9 ly. Russia 49.0 mmt vs 46.0 ly. EU 37.5 vs 35.0 ly. Canada 23.0 vs 35.0. Australia 21.5 vs 32.5. US 19.0 vs 20.6 ly. Ukraine 11.0 vs 18.8 ly. Argentina 11.5 vs 4.5 ly.


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