Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 42st day of shutdown but Senate passed a budget resolution to end the shutdown . House needs to approve the bill. Shutdown could end as soon as Wednesday. Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are slightly lower. USD is slightly lower. Crude is slightly higher. Gold is higher and back above 4,100. CFTC report could return on Friday.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.27. SX deliveries were 125. LDC issued 105. ADM stopped 45. Bunge stopped 80. Market up on optimism on end of government shutdown. Soyoil also rallied on hope EPA will work on RF and SRE’S. This week, attention will be on Fridays USDA report. Some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. Argentina dry. Rains return this weekend. US soybean exports to date down 42 pct vs last year vs USDA est down 1 pct. China soybean port stocks record high. Will be interesting how both CFTC catches up on weekly fund activity and NASS on crop ratings with harvest done. One crop watcher est the Brazil soybean crop near 177 mmt but did note some dryness in C Brazil. Analyst for a Brazil Bank estimated that Brazil farmers could increase soybean crop 61 pct from 170 mmt due to switch pasture to soybean acres.
CORN
CH is near 4.44. Corn futures following soybeans. US corn exports to date up 66 pct vs last year vs USDA est up 5 pct. Will be interesting how both CFTC catches up on weekly fund activity and NASS on crop ratings with harvest done. China approved imports of Brazil DDG and sorghum imports. Safras est Brazil corn crop 143.5 mmt with 72 pct of 1st crop corn planted. One crop watcher est the crop near 140 mmt but did note some dryness in C Brazil. Analyst for a Brazil Bank estimated that Brazil farmers could increase corn crop 58 pct from 144 mmt due to switch pasture to corn acres.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.50. KWH is near 5.38. MWH is near 5.80. US wheat exports to date up 19 pct vs last year vs USDA est up 9 pct. Will be interesting how both CFTC catches up on weekly fund activity and NASS on crop ratings with harvest done. USDA should increase Canada, Argentina, Australia and Russia crops on Friday. Egypt bought 500 mt Russia wheat.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
