Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is unch. CU is down. WU is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher with resistance near $82.50. CBOT will be closed Thursday.
SU is near 10.99. SN-SU spread and cash basis are inverted. USDA estimated US soybean acres at 86.1 mil and 83.6 ly. They also est US June 1 soybean stocks at 970 mil bu with surprising 48 pct still on farm and vs 796 last year. Trade est May soybean crush at 193.85 mil bu vs 189.3 ly. Nearby soybean futures down 5 consecutive weeks. Futures are oversold and below fair value but need adverse weather to rally. Some est support now near 10.75 with resistance now near 11.25.
CU is near 4.05. USDA estimated June 1 stocks at 4,993 mil bu vs 4,103 ly. 61 pct is still on farm. USDA est acres at 91.47 million vs 94.64 ly. NOAA July temp forecast is for above normal. Rainfall is above in Great lakes and SE. Below normal in south plains. World Weather special report headline was “Warm U.S. July weather to allow dryness to expand”. Another weather watcher headline was “ U.S. Midwest weather likely to see seasonable temps and normal to above normal rain for first half of July”. Flip a coin. Most of US corn crop will start pollinating July 9. Some est support now near 3.50 with resistance now near 4.22.
WU is near 5.71, USDA est US wheat acres near 47.24 million vs 49.57 ly. USDA also est June 1 stocks at 684 vs 570 ly with most stocks off farm.. In June, USDA est World wheat crop at 790, down 8 from May but still above ly 787. Exports are est at 212 mmt, down 4 from May and below ly 219. World end stocks are est near 252 mmt vs 259 ly. Some feel nearby Chicago futures support may be near 5.50. Upside post harvest target could be 6.50.
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