Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Markets React to Q4 US GDP


The U.S. dollar index advanced in the overnight trade. The better than expected U.S. gross domestic product growth also supported the greenback.

Retail sales in Germany declined by 1.9% month-on-month in February after falling 0.4% in January. Economists forecast retail sales would advance by 0.3%.

The weak German retail sales report increased probabilities of a June European Central Bank interest rate cut.

The number of people out of work in Germany increased less than expected in March. The number of unemployed grew by 4,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.719 million. Analysts had anticipated that figure to rise by 10,000.

The Japanese yen steadied near 151 per U.S. dollar, recovering slightly after declining to new 34-year lows earlier this week, as Japanese monetary authorities signaled their readiness to intervene in the currency markets to support the yen. Finance minister Shunichi Suzuki recently warned that “decisive steps” would be taken against excessive currency moves.


Stock index futures are higher.

The fourth quarter gross domestic product increased 3.4% when up 3.2% was expected, and personal consumption expenditures were up 3.3% when a gain of 3.0% was anticipated

Jobless claims in the week ended March 23 were 210,000 when 213,000 were estimated.

The 8:45 central time March Chicago PMI is forecast to be 46.0.

The 9:00 March consumer sentiment index is expected to be 76.5, and the February pending home sales index is anticipated to be up 1.3%.

The Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00. In February the index was  -4.0.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak on Friday at 10:30. Traders will be scrutinizing his comments for clues on the central bank’s next policy steps.

The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while the technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.


The better than expected U.S. gross domestic product report put some pressure on futures.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 6.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the May 1 policy meeting, and there is a 94.0% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.

The consensus view currently is that the FOMC will lower its fed funds rate three times this year starting in June. My view is that only two cuts are likely this year.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started