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MAY 22, 2020 USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT

by Chris Lehner, Senior Livestock Analyst

                        U.S. CATTLE ON FEED ESTIMATES               

                                                       AVERAGE              ACTUAL

CATTLE ON FEED       May          95.1                     95

PLACED DURING        April        77.4                     78

MARKETED DURING  April       75.1                     76

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.2 million head on May 1, 2020. The inventory was 5 percent below May 1, 2019. 

Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.43 million head, 22 percent below 2019. Placements were the second lowest for April since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.36 million head. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 295,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 180,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 315,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 392,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 180,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.             

 Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.46 million head, 24 percent below 2019. April marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996.      

Other disappearance totaled 70,000 head during April, 17 percent above 2019. ( Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.)

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The report is in line with expectations. With no trading until Tuesday, it will have very effect to futures. Trade volume has declined with large traders waiting to see if packers can increase slaughter and take in overdue cattle.  Large disappearance likely due to cattle moved from feedlots onto pastures or being fed forage instead of feed. Barbed wire and electric fencing is hard to find, so it appears cattle put on pastures. 

Unless algo traders move heavily into trading Tuesday, fundamentally look for continued sideways trade because of  report. Cattle are available. When packers can slaughter is the question.

 

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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