Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices are little changed as waning bets of a December rate cut from the Fed have weighed on the yellow metal ahead of a delayed September jobs report on Thursday. Fed Funds futures are showing less than a 50% chance of a September rate cut from the Fed, down significantly from just over a month ago, as several Fed officials have voiced caution over monetary policy. Fedspeak on Monday was mixed. Fed Governor Waller continued to build the case for further rate cuts amid a broad policy dispute at the Fed, while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the bank needs to “proceed slowly.”
The latest Labor Department data showed initial jobless claims at 232K for the week ended October 18 vs. expectations of 223k, while continuing claims reached 1.957 million, the highest level since August. Meanwhile, PMI data due Friday will also shine some light on current economic conditions. The Fed will also publish its meeting minutes from October on Wednesday, which could offer clues regarding how many members would support a rate cut in December. Markets will continue to look to private figures for clues to the state of the US economy.
The long-term outlook for gold will remain supported by continued central bank purchasing.
Silver: Silver futures fell 0.75% to $50.32.
Platinum: Platinum is 0.9% lower at $1,541.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices fell for a third day in a row as the metals complex was wrapped up in a broader market selloff amid waning expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates in December. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 0.8% at $10,690. Copper is now down around 4.5% from the all-time peak of $11,200 struck on October 29, likely in correction territory as supply fears have subsided, with the cash LME contract was trading at a $39-a-ton discount to the three-month forward, indicating no shortage of near-term metal. Freeport-McMoRan said it plans to restore large-scale production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, following a fatal incident that forced operations to halt in September.
There is little change regarding narrative on copper, with markets eyeing upcoming data out of the US for clues on Fed direction and for signs of economic activity. Sentiment has recently been weighed down by disappointing data out of China, where recent industrial data has been uninspiring even as major infrastructure and green energy investments support long-term demand. Speculation has been growing that Beijing will target the copper refining industry in its drive to reduce overcapacity, following calls from China’s nonferrous metals association for tighter oversight of new smelting projects. Meanwhile, The Yangshan copper premium, an indicator of Chinese import demand, has fallen to $32 a ton, the lowest since July.
Zinc: Zinc lost 0.7% to $2,972, its lowest since October 20.
Aluminum: Aluminum fell 1% to $2,785.
Tin: Tin shed 0.6% to $36,675.
Lead: Lead dipped 0.2% to $2,034.
Nickel: Nickel slipped 0.2% to $14,625.
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