Metals Get a Risk-On Boost

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold: Gold prices are higher as the dollar fell amid a lift in risk sentiment across markets. April COMEX contracts are up 1.8% to $4,764. President Trump posted on social media that Iran had asked for a ceasefire, which the US will not consider unless the Strait of Hormuz is open. This follows a Bloomberg TV headline on Tuesday that included the headline: “Iran President Says Ready to End War: IRNA.” Bloomberg, citing a report from IRNA, wrote that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told a European official that Iran has “the necessary will to end this war.”

Also supporting bullion is a dovish repricing of Fed expectations. Odds of a hike at December’s meeting are non-existent, marking a sharp reversal after ending Friday at an implied 50%. Tuesday’s JOLTS data reinforced the case for a Fed hold but also ruled out the need for tightening. Total job openings were little changed at 6.9 million in February, with a rate of 4.2%, down 0.2% from January’s revised 4.4%. Meanwhile, total hires fell −498,000 to 4.849 million, dropping the hires rate to 3.1%, the lowest level since April 2020. Taken together, the labor market is softening but not breaking, though the weak hiring figures do present real risks to the Fed’s dual mandate and support the case for Fed easing later in the year.

Fed Chair Powell on Monday said the central bank is inclined to hold rates steady and look past the energy shock from the war in Iran, though he cautioned that action could be necessary if the public inflation expectations rise significantly. Powell noted that energy disruptions tend to be short-lived, and monetary policy works too slowly to counteract them in real time. Powell also said that longer-run inflation expectations appear to be “well-anchored” despite the elevated oil prices.

Silver: Silver futures are up 0.36% to $75.19.

BASE METALS

Copper: Copper prices extended gains on Wednesday, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME up 0.2% to $12,365 as a fall in the dollar and a risk-on sentiment lifted prices. This marks its fourth straight session of gains, though copper still rests well below its record high of $14,527 on January 29. The market is trading higher on belief that the conflict is getting close to an end, though still-elevated oil prices and damage to oil infrastructure risk demand worries.

Also supporting copper is fresh data showing the private manufacturing sector in top metals consumer China expanded in March for a fourth straight month, though slowed from February. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March from 52.1 in February, missing forecasts of 51.6. New orders increased for a 10th straight month in March, the RatingDog survey showed. New export business also rose, but the pace slowed from February. Production rose for a fourth consecutive month. Over the first quarter of 2026 as a whole, output growth was the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2024. Notably, cost pressures intensified significantly as input costs rose at the fastest rate since March 2022, while output prices increased at their quickest pace in four years as manufacturers passed on higher costs.

This comes after official survey data on Tuesday, which showed the index rose to 50.4 in March from 49.0 in February and above forecasts of 50.1. This marked the strongest reading since March last year and a rebound after two months of contraction, supported by stronger government spending early in the year and resilient exports driven by AI-related global demand.

Elevated inventory levels and macroeconomic concerns related to the Iran conflict continue to offer near-term headwinds to any sustained gains. LME copper warehouse stocks remain at nearly an eight-year high close to 360,000 tons, up 150% YTD. Copper remains a market caught between structural bulls and cyclical sceptics. On one side, investors focused on grid build‑out, renewables and data‑center demand continue to view pullbacks as opportunities to maintain exposure to a constrained supply story. On the other, rising inventories, uneven Chinese property activity and slower factory growth in several major economies are encouraging macro funds to fade rallies and keep overall risk light.

Zinc: Zinc added 0.4% to $3,240.

Aluminum: Aluminum rose 1.6% to $3,523. Aluminum initially fell as investors reckoned that supply issues from the Gulf smelters would improve amid a potential ceasefire. However, prices rebounded after a consultancy said one major smelter had halted operations and another was only running at 30% utilization.

Tin: Tin climbed 2.1% to $47,745.

Lead: Lead gained 1.3% to $1,928.

Nickel: Nickel rose 0.7% to $17,225.

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