GOLD / SILVER
While the bias in gold and silver prices looks to remain up over the longer term, the markets are facing signs of corrective pressure throughout the physical commodity space early today. The bull camp should be supported by a 7th straight day of gold purchases by ETF’s with net purchases year to date at 20.7 million ounces. Unfortunately for the bull camp the August gold contract yesterday retested the $1800 level again and was unable to pierce that resistance zone in a fashion that suggests a loss of momentum and the need for some slight back and fill on the charts. With gold, silver and other physical commodities seeing lift from a weakening Dollar recently it is not surprising to see commodities fall back this morning in the face of a Dollar bounce.
PLATINUM / PALLADIUM
While the September palladium market forged a hook reversal on its charts yesterday, it is extremely difficult to call for a reversal of the down trend given the performance in palladium over the last 50 trading days. Obviously demand expectations for a number of physical commodities like palladium are improving and perhaps that is beginning to prompt some traders to see the palladium basing action of the last 3 months as an indication that some value has finally been found above $1,750. However, to signal an upside breakout on the charts probably requires a trade above $1,977 and perhaps a close above $2,000. The platinum market did reject a 4 day low yesterday, but prices ultimately remained within last week’s range in a fashion that suggests the sideways to lower bias is likely to remain in place.
With a massive trading range in copper yesterday and a fresh high for the move (the highest since January 23rd), the bull camp clearly extended its control into the new trading week. In fact with a fresh higher high for the move again early today and a retest of $2.80 the bull camp has stood up against a negative physical commodity market environment today. Obviously better-than-expected US ISM readings, another Chinese scrap copper import quota, a year over year decline in Russia January through May copper exports, a large daily decline in LME copper warehouse stocks yesterday and further improvement in economic views toward China gives the bull camp ongoing confidence.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.