Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices edged higher as markets assessed President Trump’s 48 hour timeline (ending 8 p.m. EST Tuesday) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In Easter Sunday social media post, Trump threatened to target Iran’s power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway is not reopened. Reuters reported that the US and Iran had received a draft peace plan mediated by Pakistan, which would involve an immediate ceasefire. However, neither side has publicly confirmed the existence of such a proposal or their willingness to accept it. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump told Fox News on Sunday that Iran was negotiating, with a deal possible by Monday.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields are little changed as markets await ISM services data ahead of President Trump’s deadline for Iran. Friday’s payrolls report did little to move Fed policy expectations, with markets pricing in no change to the Fed Feds rate by year-end. One-year inflation swaps remain elevated ahead of March’s inflation data, which is likely to show a sharp, energy-induced spike in prices. Swaps are currently priced at 3.2%. Still, a move up from the Fed appears unlikely. Hawkish Fed expectations have been a factor that has been offering strong headwinds to gold prices.
Fed Chair Powell said the central bank is inclined to hold rates steady and look past the energy shock from the war in Iran, though he cautioned that action could be necessary if the public inflation expectations rise significantly.
Silver: Silver futures are up 0.10% to $73.00.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are higher, with May COMEX futures up 0.56% to $5.61 as the LME is closed for holiday. The broader near-term macro case for copper appears bearish as elevated energy prices and supply chain risks weigh on the outlook for industrial demand and global growth, while elevated inventory levels at the CME and COMEX show little appetite for demand. Copper warehouse stocks remain at nearly an eight-year high of 364,450 tons, up 150% YTD. Meanwhile, major Chinese smelters are planning to raise or maintain output in 2026, per 2026 earnings outlooks, despite a public commitment late last year to cut production by more than 10%. Jiangxi Copper, China’s top copper smelter, raised 2026 production guidance for copper cathodes to 2.39 million metric tons, up from 2.38 million tons produced in 2025. Similarly, Yunnan Copper increased its 2026 guidance to 1.71 million tons, up from 1.64 million tons produced last year. Daye Nonferrous, which published results last week, flagged a slight drop in 2026 to 713,000 tons, from output of 716,000 tons for last year. The three smelters produced a third of China’s refined copper last year.
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