Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. Will US Fed lower rates in September? USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. GSI commodity index is higher on higher energy prices. Russia continues to increase attacks on Ukraine. US Midwest forecast is dry but cool.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.58. 10.74 is next resistance. BOZ is near 55.19. Reallocation of interagency rule change and EPA granting 5.3 bil gals of SRE back to 2016 is not bullish. Pro Farmer est US soybean yield at 53.0 and some feel is too low but is offering support to futures. SMZ is up against $300 resistance. Consumers continue to add 2025 soymeal coverage. China ambassador to US indicated US protectionism is undermining Chinas Ag cooperation. One group dropped US soybean crop 81 mil bu and dropped carryout 105 mil bu to 398 from their previous est. They look for soybean futures lower end of a range in November near 8.67, soymeal low near 236 in December and soyoil high near 59.60 in May,2026.
CORN
CZ is near 4.16. 4.17 is next resistance. CU-CZ spread at -23 suggest adequate corn supply. US lakes are competitive to W EU. US gulf to EU and N Africa and PNW to Asia. IGC raised their est of US corn crop 24.6 mmt to 423.5. This increased World corn crop to 1,299 mmt. They also increased demand 13 mmt. Pro Farmer US corn yield at 182.7 may be offering support to corn futures. One group increased US corn crop 593 mil bu and increased carryout 405 mil bu to 2,875 from their previous est. They look for corn futures lower end of a range in December near 3.38.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.32. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.23. MWZ is near 5.89. Even in 2016, a year of global wheat oversupply, wheat futures bottomed in September. Global wheat trade at end of August was down 10 pct vs ly. USDA est US 2025 crop at 1,927 mil bu vs 1,971 ly, exports at 875 mil bu vs 826 last year and carryout at 869 mil bu vs 851 ly. One group est Chicago wheat futures high of a range near 6.20 in July, 2026, KC near 6.40 and MLS 6.80. They est US HRW end stocks at 419 mil bu vs 386 ly, SRW 137 vs 127 ly, HRS 200 vs 218 ly and White wheat 85 vs 80 ly. They est Russia wheat exports at 43.0 mmt vs USDA 46.0 and 41.4 ly.
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