Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Trade will be watching for May grain deliveries and USDA May 12 report. Crude is near $61. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Gold is lower. Silver and copper are higher.
CORN
CN is near 4.81. CN-CZ is near +33. Dalian corn futures were higher and 10 month high on talk of drier NE China weather. USDA estimated US corn plantings at 24 pct vs 25 ly. IL remains behind average due to wet soils. This year, favorable US Midwest weather could also increase final corn acres. Brazil rains is increasing talk of higher safrina crop production. US corn exports were higher than expected with season to date exports up 29 pct vs ly and USDA up 11. Future US corn exports could be lower due to higher Brazil crop and lower wheat prices. Interesting debate concerning USDA May supply and demand report. Some are looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,500 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. Others are 1,465 and 2,280. 24/25 key is US exports.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.32. KWN is near 5.40. MWN is near 5.99. USDA increased winter wheat G/E rating to 49. Spring wheat planting is 30 pct vs 21 average. Russia, Australia and Argentina forecast is dry. US wheat exports are up 15 pct vs ly and USDA up 16. Sep Matif is near 15 month low. There is talk of French wheat to Egypt. USDA May supply and demand report will be May 12. Some are looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863, others 785. Key is final crop size and exports.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.59. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Lower soymeal and soyoil prices is dropping China crush margins. USDA estimated US soybean plantings at 18 pct and a record fast start. IL remans behind normal due to wet soils. Without a US summer weather problem SX has key resistance near 10.50-10.75. US soybean exports are up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Interesting debate concerning USDA May supply and demand report. Some are looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 400 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 650. Others are 340 and 585. 24/25 key is US exports. Brazil soybean fob prices lower on reduced China buying.
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