Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down 2 cents and near 13.30. SX is down 4 cents and near 13.23. SMU is near 362.2. BOU is lower and near 59.39. CU is up 1 cent and near 5.44. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.33. WU is up 1 cent and near 6.23. KWU is up 5 cents and near 5.89. MWU is up 4 cents and near 8.12. US stocks are sharply lower. Money afraid of slower global economic growth? US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
Corn futures trying to figure out US summer weather and impact on final yield. There remains uncertainty over final US 20/21 and 21/22 corn export demand despite steep drop in Brazil export supply. Key will be China demand. Trade est US 2021 corn crop near 15,115 vs WOB 14,990, one private est overnight near 14,683, 20/21 carryout 1,088 vs WOB 1,107, Range 1,000-1,257, 21/22 carryout 1,402 vs 1,354. Range 1,057-1,542. Brazil crop 92.2 vs WOB 98.5, World 20/21 corn end stocks near 279.7 vs 280.6 and 21/22 288.9 vs 289.4. WOB report July 12. CU saw a 95 cent drop from NASS acre report high on better US Midwest weather. 100 day moving ave is near 5.46. 5.70 key gap resistance.
Soybean futures also trying to figure out US summer weather and impact on final yield. There remains uncertainty over final US 20/21 and 21/22 demand. Key will be China demand. Trade est US 2021 soybean crop near 4,394 vs WOB 4,405, 20/21 carryout 134 vs WOB 135, Range 120-149, 21/22 carryout 148 vs 155, Range 120-165, Brazil crop 136.7 vs WOB 137.0, World 20/21 soybean end stocks near 87.6 vs 88.0 and 21/22 92.5 vs 92.5. SU saw a 126 cent drop from NASS acre report high on better US Midwest weather. 100 day moving ave is near 13.42, 20 day 13.49. 13.83 key gap resistance.
Chicago wheat futures trying to figure price that could increase demand and final NA HRS crop size. Trade est US 2021 wheat crop near 1,847 vs WOB 1,898, WW 1,371 vs 1,309. HRS 459 vs 560 ly, Range 358-560, 21/22 carryout 729 vs WOB 770, Range 575-809, World 21/22 wheat end stocks 295.4 vs 296.8. WU saw a 79 cent drop from NASS acre report high on better US Midwest weather and slow demand for US export. 200 day moving ave is near 6.37. 6.38 key gap resistance.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 7,000 corn; bought 11,000 soybeans, 2,000 soyoil, and 1,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 226,000 Corn; net long 83,000 Soybeans; net long 30,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 38,000 Soyoil.
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