Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 5 cents and near 15.37. SMH is near 499.6. BOH is near 60.37. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.85. WH is down 1 cent and near 7.90. KWH is unch and near 9.12. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.31. CPI Tuesday. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and meats are higher. Silver and cotton are lower.
SH is up against 15.50 resistance. SMH is up against 500. Ongoing concerns about Argentina 2023 soybean and soymeal supply is supportive. Fact EU and Middle East soymeal buyers are short and need soymeal is also supportive. Argentina 2 week forecast is dry. One crop watcher est Argentina soybean crop near 36.0 mmt vs USDA 41.0. They also est Brazil at 151.0 mmt vs USDA 153.0. Brazil weather suggest increase soybean harvest. 2 week MG Brazil is turning wetter next week. MGDS is wet. BOH has dropped on talk of lower Asian vegoil demand and higher US domestic soyoil stocks.
CH is testing 6.85 resistance again. There is talk that Russia may not extend the Ukraine export corridor deal past March 19 unless West drops sanctions against Russia. US domestic corn basis remains strong despite steady farmer selling. This offsets talk of lower US domestic ethanol, feed and export demand. CK-CZ inverse reflects tight supplies but will US export demand increase or will inverse collapse? Argentina 2 week forecast is dry. One crop watcher est Argentina corn crop near 43.0 mmt vs USDA 47.0 They also est Brazil at 123.0 mmt vs USDA 125.0. There is now price premium in corn futures if Russia and UN do not agree to extend Ukraine export program.
Wheat futures are mixed with KC and MLS gaining on Chicago. KC still celebrating SB win. Russia is slowing wheat export pace. Some of this due to weather. There is talk that Russia may not extend the Ukraine export corridor deal past March 19 unless West drops sanctions against Russia. Wheat futures have no Black Sea risk war premium added. Trade watching US HRW weather with scattered showers favoring north and east. Matif wheat futures also higher on concern about Black Sea wheat exports and talk of lower EU 2023 wheat acres and current dry weather pattern. KWH above 20 DMA, 50 DMA and 100 DMA. This is triggering some fund short covering.
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