Mixed Grains Prices Outlook
Grains are mixed. SK is down 6 cents and near 13.84. SMK is near 415.4. BOK is near 49.05. CK is down 4 cents and near 5.34. WK is up 3 cents near 6.53. KWK is up 4 cents and near 6.27. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed. Gold and copper are higher. China warning about stocks bubble?
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 52 yuan in soybeans, down 12 in Corn, down 38 in Soymeal, down 32 in Soyoil, and down 170 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 44 ringgit at 3,640 (basis May) on ideas inventories to rise due to a drop in exports and rising output.
In Argentina, net drying will continue in most of the region through Mar. 10. Last evening’s GFS model was wetter in week 2 of the outlook in Argentina compared to the midday GFS model. Notable rain in southern Brazil Tuesday through next Monday will be beneficial in preventing moisture stress; however, it will also lead to some fieldwork delays.
US Wheat exports are running down 4% versus down 2% a week ago with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year, Corn up 81% (up 80% last week); USDA up 46% and Soybeans up 76% (up 77% last week) with the USDA up 34% on the year USDA est Jan US soybean crush at 197 mil bu. Trade estimate was 195.6 mil bu versus 193 mil a month ago and 189 mil last year. Higher crush weighed on soymeal and soyoil values.
SK continues to trade lower. China soymeal and vegoil price are lower while soybean prices continue to traded higher. Brazil soybean harvest is 25 pct vs 40 ly. Most est the crop near 132 mmt. There is a record 19 mmt of soybean waiting to load in Brazil. Loadings are improving. Some est that Feb-Mar exports will be a record 21 mmt vs 15 ly. Argentina weather is dry. Argentina crop is est near 46 mmt with crop rated 15 G/E vs 19 last week and 64 ly.
CK is also lower on talk of increase South America exports. Weekly US corn exports were better than expected. 3 pct of TX corn crop is planted vs 7 average. 39 pct of Brazil second corn crop is planted vs 67 last year. Crop is est near 105 mmt. Argentina is dry. Crop is rated 30 pct G/E vs 24 last week and 59 ly. Crop is est near 45.5 mmt. There appears to be no China buying interest in new corn imports.
WK is finding some support after USDA lowered US weekly HRW crop ratings. KS is 32 pct G/E vs 40 lw, TX 28 vs 30, OK 46 vs 48. Matif made new 8 years highs on lower supplies.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 7,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 22,000 contracts of Corn; sold 10,000 Soybeans; sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 5,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 336,000 Corn; net long 155,000 Soybeans; net long 65,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 114,000 Soyoil.
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