Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Mixed Softs Outlook


The market experienced follow-through buying overnight which is a positive technical development. With the market focusing on critical second quarter grindings results next week, positive guidance from a key market player could help support. Cocoa was able to overcome sluggish European and US equity markets and a sharp selloff in the Eurocurrency, both of which were sources of carryover pressure. The major global chocolate market Barry Callebaut reported their latest quarterly sales were down 14.3%, which was not a surprise with most major economies in some “lockdown” level during that timeframe.


Coffee prices have had only 1 positive daily result over the past 5 sessions. The market continues to stay well clear of the late June lows in spite of subdued global demand and a likely record-high Brazilian crop. As a result, it may not take much in the way of fresh positive supply/demand news for a bounce. Forecasts calling for warmer and drier weather over Brazil’s key Arabica growing of south Minas Gerais through the end of next week was a source of pressure as that pattern minimizes the chances for potential frost damage over the next few weeks.


Follow-through selling overnight helps to confirm a short-term peak. Key resistance for December cotton is at 64.28. The hook reversal to close below this level is a bearish short-term technical signal. The reversal comes from an overbought condition. The early buying pushed the market up to the highest level since March 5. The market may have seen some profit taking ahead of the USDA supply demand report today. Some of the selling might have been brought on by the export sales report, which was disappointing relative to last week.


Sugar prices have found significant carryover support from the energy markets over the past few months. With fresh evidence of the sharp increase in Brazilian production, sugar prices are likely to remain on the defensive. A pullback in the Brazilian currency and a sizable selloff in energy prices weighed on sugar prices as it will encourage Brazil’s Center-South mills to produce more sugar as the expense of ethanol.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started