Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. Turnaround Tuesday? Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. To date, 2025 April stocks drop worst April since 1932. Gold is higher at 3,500. March US Conference Board leading Economic Index dropped 3.5 pct yoy and the 33 consecutive month of annualized decline.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.49. China Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were higher. Weekly US soybean exports were near 20 mil bu and 5th consecutive week that shipments were higher than last year. Season to date exports are 1,567 mil bu vs 1,413 ly. USDA estimated US soybean plantings at 8 pct vs 5 average. 12 of 18 major US states are ahead of average. LA,MS and AR are furthest ahead while KY and OH are furthest behind. 16 pf last 29 years, June US soybean acres increase and average of 1.0 mil acres from March. One crop watcher increased Argentina soybean crop 1 mmt to 49. Left Brazil at 169.
CORN
CN is near 4.90. Dalian corn futures were higher. South US and east rains could slow plantings there. Parts of IL, IN, OH, KY and MO will be dry over next 7 days. Weekly US corn exports were near 67 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,544 mil bu vs 1,197 ly. USDA estimated US corn plantings at 12 pct vs 10 average. 7 of 18 major US states are ahead of average. IA is furthest ahead while KY is furthest behind. Last year, US farmers added 1.4 mil corn acres from March to June. This year total March US planted acres were down 3.0 mil from last year March and 1.3 mil down from final US 2024 acres. One crop watch increased Argentina corn crop 2 mmt to 48 and increased Brazil corn crop 3 mmt to 125.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.53. KWN is near 5.66. MWN is near 6.16. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. EU model has rains for dry US plains. Russia forecast is for scattered light rains. Weekly US wheat exports were near 18 mil bu. Season to date exports are 691 mil bu vs 604 ly. USDA estimated US spring wheat plantings at 17 pct vs 12 average. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 45 pct G/E vs 47 last week 50 last year. MO 73, KS 41, WA 69.
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